I know I'm coming late to the thread, thought I'd kick in my $0.02.
To your comment, and for the other posters.... I used to work at a large garment manufacturer. (You've seen their stores, and their products, unless you live under a rock).
Anyway, a few weeks ago I was talking with one of the few people I know who still work there. Guy works at their Distribution Center (DC); the place is huge, like 500,000 ft^2 under roof. Back-to-School is their biggest time. Right now the DC should be going three shifts and Saturdays (they don't really work Sunday, just "essential" services).
Instead, last month it was working a staggered 1-1/2 shifts, and no weekends.
So, rather than going a full-bore 24/6, they're working a scant 12/5. And this is at the top of the chain, if they're not shipping product, then product isn't going on shelves and people aren't buying.
Back-To-School is this company's BIG moneymaker, with XMas a distant second. I'll likely be yakking with this guy in Sept/Oct, I'm curious to see what the holidays are bringing.
I'd like to be optimistic, but I think that we're a good ways from getting out of this mess. Especially since the current leadership won't stop digging us deeper.
Thanks for the informative reply. I have family in retail and, although they went to market week in July, they didn’t put in much of an order for the Christmas stock compared to other years.
It’s amazing how the toadies in the MSM treat us like mushrooms.
I was in WallyWorld the other day and their BTS section is still fully stocked and in reasonable order. Usually by now (a week before school starts) it looks like the scraps the piranhas left from a cow. Only a few registers open, too.