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To: palmer
Market rates on 10 years should reflect expected inflation within 10 years plus risk of default whether partial or full.

So Bernanke doesn't have absolute power over 10 year yields? Good to know.

That's the way markets work, the sellers at that point in time were throwing in the towel believing that the Fed was doing its last purchase.

Bernanke announcing he'd buy 10 years to keep the yield down was a signal the Fed stopped purchasing?

I think we've discovered that just because the Fed tries to do something doesn't mean they'll be successful.

104 posted on 07/29/2009 8:35:45 AM PDT by Toddsterpatriot (Math is hard. Harder if you're stupid.)
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To: Toddsterpatriot
Bernanke announcing he'd buy 10 years to keep the yield down was a signal the Fed stopped purchasing? I think we've discovered that just because the Fed tries to do something doesn't mean they'll be successful.

I think we've discovered a balance between the market's expectations of the Fed's willingness to do QE and the Fed's actual willingness and power to do it. We are nowhere near the point that the Fed is running out of QE ammo, so it boils down to willingness. IOW how much is the Fed willing to let 10 year rates rise at this point in the recovery versus the inflation needed to keep them low? Or to preclude inflation, when would the Fed think it suitable to sell their long bond portfolio? It boils down to the markets guessing at the Fed's perceptions of the markets (somewhat circularly).

I admit one thing though, if the Fed is going to do this (which I strongly disagree with), it absolutely must be independent to avoid total chaos in the markets.

106 posted on 07/29/2009 9:03:20 AM PDT by palmer (Cooperating with Obama = helping him extend the depression and implement socialism.)
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