“I disagree. If he is the nominee, the conservative base will, once again, vote with their butts”
99.9% will vote against Obama.
No they won't. Weak candidates make for weak turn out, weak turn out means losses all the way down the ticket.
Apathy is bad but Romney actually repulses a lot of the conservative base and he would do more than only cause weak turn out, he would cause a small degree of actual rebellion and refusal to vote for his ticket.
Romney represents a line in the sand for many conservatives, he is a bridge too far because his prevailing in being awarded the nomination would prove that conservatives have no influence or control over the GOP.
Personally I believe that conservatives are winning this showdown against the Rockefeller/Romney part of the GOP and it's media representatives like Peggy Noonan that have been dragged out into the light this past year.
Sarah Palin threw a brick through the smoky colored dome that covered our little world of ineffectual conservatism and with the light that shined through that opening we could see all of the slimy little creatures that instead of being with us, have been fighting us and holding us back for all these years.
The battle lines are drawn, we know who each other are now.
How many stayed home when Bob Dole was the nominee and wasn't even good enough for the NRA endorsement against Clinton of all people?
Don't count on the conservative voting just against someone. We need someone to work with. It's not THAT hard if Bush was able to get the conservative vote in 04.