I agree. The guy running against Shuler in the last election was an idiot. The best chance to unseat a Representative is in their first re-election contest and we didn’t come close. Unless there’s a 1994 type shift in 2010 or a brilliant candidate (none on the horizon) I think Shuler wins.
If I were advising Palin, I'd have her pick out some races where she could help conservative candidates then go out and campaign for them. Hopefully she can make a difference and help the GOP and herself.