You said — So in the grand scheme of things what does any of it all mean. Is 65,000 any more than any other year????
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Well, I would say yes, in this case. You supplied figures of 300,000-500,000 deaths, worldwide, annually. So, let’s take the projected figure of 65,000 deaths in just the U.K. and see how that compares.
If we took the 300,000 and the 65,000 figures, we would have the U.K. with almost 22% of the worldwide deaths. Or perhaps the 500,000 figure, we would have the U.K. with about 13% of the worldwide death figure.
I don’t know about you, but that sounds like a lot to me — and that’s just one country. When you start figuring in all the other countries you’re going to end up with a huge figure there.
And then, when you see that there are about three flu pandemics per century (on the average over the last three centuries), and that the last one was 41 years ago — that’s another thing that is very significant. Being that the last one was 41 years ago, that’s way over the average, by many years. So, one could say that we were “due” for another pandemic by the average figures per century.
And another thing, when you figure that this strain of the A/H1N1 flu virus can *also* be happening right along side the “seasonal flu” too — then you’ve got even more problems. Those figures that you were giving were for the seasonal flu. And that’s fine. But, guess what — the seasonal flu will be going on right alongside the “A/H1N1 flu pandemic” virus. You can (and *will*) have both going on at the same time. And an immunity or resistance to one is not going to provide an immunity or resistance to the other.
And one more thing, the A/H1N1 flu virus is related to the 1918 flu virus which is called worst medical/disease disaster in world history, even surpassing the Plague of the Middle Ages. We haven’t seen if this is going to mutate and change and become more deadly. These things do have a tendency to mutate and change as they go along.
I would say that the A/H1N1 flu pandemic of 2009 is quite significant...
Dr. Jennifer Ashton Discusses U.S. Estimates of Infection, Hospitalization and Death if All Went Wrong NEW YORK, July 21, 2009
(CBS) While we're nowhere close to what government planners say would be a worst-case scenario, health leaders at all levels have spent years planning for one. What they found was a grim picture of what could happen if a virus like H1N1 gets severely out of control.
The worst-case scenario report, CBS News medical correspondent Dr. Jennifer Ashton said on "The Early Show" Tuesday, predicts that about 30 percent of the U.S. population -- 90 million Americans -- could be infected.
The worst-case scenario plan also estimates 9.9 million hospitalizations, 1,485,000 intensive-care-unit admissions and 1,903,000 deaths.
The statistics, Ashton said, are based on a computer program that tracks and forecasts a path like a hurricane's. Part of the estimates, Ashton added, are based on infection patterns in the 1958 and 1968 influenza pandemics.
But with the World Health Organization estimating in May that 2 billion people could be infected next flu season, how likely it is this scenario?
Ashton said, "Hopefully not likely at all, but again, we want to prepare for a worst-case scenario, because they have social, medical and economic impacts."
Talking about worst-case scenarios is not meant to scare people, but rather to make them prepare. So how can you prepare?
Ashton said planning means talking to your employer to find out if you can work at home when you're sick or finding out what plans are in place at your children's schools. People should plan to check on homebound, elderly, impaired or sick neighbors in case the person who delivers care to them becomes sick himself.
"All of this is planning and it is critical," Ashton said.
The government is also preparing."It's a huge economic issue that the government is looking at," Ashton said.
Ashton said the regular flu season is also a concern because it takes a "huge medical and financial toll."
"We're going to hear more and more about vaccines and general influenza awareness," Ashton said.
As for vaccines, Ashton said swine flu is still evolving, but there's likely going to be two vaccines.
She said, "People should really talk to their doctors about getting both of them."
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/07/21/earlyshow/health/main5177452.shtml