True enough but as you point out business loan failures are a precursor to commercial real estate losing tenants and then cascading into failure. CIT could be the first shoe to drop in this second big spike down. A whole different kind of bank will fail, more trillions in bailouts, unemployment accelerating back to levels seen in january.
Is is probably more sensitive to this downturn than a pure commercial real estate lender would be. The assets it can repossess are things like retail inventories from small shops and brake presses and milling machines from light industry. I would imagine thee type of things would go for pennies on the dollar at auction. Relatively speaking, a 50% drop in real estate prices would have less impact on its balance sheet than a 90% drop in the price of these other assets.
The question for me is the timing. How far away is this commercial real estate collapse - weeks or months?.