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I can't think of any war that we've fought in the last century where you could have foreseen it years ahead of time. If I would have guessed, I would have thought we would have gone to war with the Soviet Union. That's who we prepared to fight throughout most of my career. Instead we end up in Granada fighting Cubans and fighting the Iraqis. If anyone doesn't think we won Desert Storm - They need to stop taking whatever pills your on because they aren't good for them.

In the case of national defense, you need to prepare for the worst case scenario and hope for the best. A strong military is the best deterrent. Japan attacked Pearl Harbor because they thought we could be easily defeated in the Pacific. They almost succeeded. The only reason they didn't was because our carriers weren't in port at the time of the attack.