Posted on 07/05/2009 6:36:38 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
A second half recovery is suddenly not a sure thing
An end to the green-shoot rally?
By Greg Robb, MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- For months, policymakers from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on down told investors that a second-half recovery was a safe bet.
Investors, optimists by nature, eventually bought in.
But now, even though the second half has actually arrived, the curtain on the recovery has so far remained down and questions are being raised on whether it will go up at all.
Suddenly notable economists say the whole thing might not happen. Others, including Harvard economist Martin Feldstein, predict the curtain may go up for a brief period but then go crashing back down.
What gives?
It turns out the "consensus" of a second half recovery was never very solid.
This is how economists put it.
(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...
The Chinese are anxiously waiting for the riots to begin...the big ones.
“Not really true. Some niche economy in the world is doing OK. Asia is living off Chinese stimulus for now, which will dry up soon. No real green shoot to speak of.”
I adhere to the decoupling scenario. Granted China is not going to get rich from buying our debt, the real key for China is if the government will allow its people to consume the products they produce. The problem with America is that we have become noncompetitive in the global market place thanks to taxes, regulations, moral hazards, and government irresponsibility.
We need a competitive business environment to produce again, but that won’t happen with the current administration and Fed policy. With all that being said I am mostly bullish on gold, but the emerging markets will do better than America in the near and medium term.
I’ll have to review the Mad Max movies for survival tips.
Green shoots are possible if the House is flipped
Don’t reach for the boomerang.
To me, it's all in the fundamentals. And the fundamentals speak nothing but doom these days.
And remember, Mr. Market is always right.
Green shoots my ass.
For months, policymakers from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on down told investors that a second-half recovery was a safe bet.
What else would they say? Would they say the second-half will be a disaster because of the idiot in the White House? They can't say that.
Pretty bad when the Fed Chairman has to lie to the American people.
Global warming policies and mentalities cause economic freezing. Those green shoots are watermelons.
Well, housing led the ‘recession’, and many say housing will lead us out of the ‘recession’. Gubmint is vacuuming up all the mortgages it can thru Fannie and Freddie. Fannie is now offering mortgages at 125% financing over ‘real’ value (subprime on steroids)...subprime era only 104% was available...more of these will fail than the original subprimes. Govt. is all about redistributing its inventory, and apparently, its’ troubles. Redistributing has never lead to a recovery and never will. How can govt. owned real estate at imagined values not validated by a free marketplace lead to ‘recovery’ at any time?
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