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The Secret of the Rahmstorf "Non-Linear Trend Line" (Global warming trend a statistics manipulation)
Climate Audit ^ | July 3, 2009 | Steve McIntyre

Posted on 07/04/2009 8:57:39 AM PDT by gusopol3

Since the publication of Rahmstorf et al 2007, a highly influential comparison of models to observations, David Stockwell has made a concerted effort to figure out how Rahmstorf smoothing worked. I now have a copy of the program and have worked through the linear algebra. It turns out that Rahmstorf has pulled an elaborate practical joke on the Community, as I'll show below. It must have taken all of Rahmstorf's will-power to have kept the joke to himself for so long and the punch-line (see below) is worth savoring.

(Excerpt) Read more at climateaudit.org ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: agw; globalwarming; temperaturetrends

1 posted on 07/04/2009 8:57:39 AM PDT by gusopol3
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To: gusopol3

Brad DeLong, apparently a star economist of the Krugman school, is so impressed with the trend line, that he puts it on his blog home page.

http://delong.typepad.com/


2 posted on 07/04/2009 9:00:13 AM PDT by gusopol3
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To: gusopol3

He really sees in graphs what he wants to see;

http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2009/03/delong-lessons-from-the-new-deal-for-today.html

see page 4 of the PDF which was presented to Congress


3 posted on 07/04/2009 9:09:57 AM PDT by gusopol3
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To: gusopol3

The way I read the graph, going off the gold standard flattened growth in the US coming off the bottom.


4 posted on 07/04/2009 9:11:47 AM PDT by gusopol3
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To: gusopol3

Read this for more on this IPCC, and data fudging.

http://landshape.org/enm/rahmstorf-2007-discredited/


5 posted on 07/04/2009 9:12:56 AM PDT by wbones8765 ("Give me liberty or give me death")
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To: gusopol3

be sure to see the comments which include an exchange with the contributor of this item about Greenland ice cap :http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/07/090701102900.htm


6 posted on 07/04/2009 9:21:13 AM PDT by gusopol3
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To: wbones8765

Thanks, that’s succinct and a little more hard -hitting.


7 posted on 07/04/2009 9:22:53 AM PDT by gusopol3
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To: gusopol3

Anything for the cause, and truth!!!!


8 posted on 07/04/2009 9:23:42 AM PDT by wbones8765 ("Give me liberty or give me death")
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To: gusopol3

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

parsy, who forgets who said this.


9 posted on 07/04/2009 9:32:01 AM PDT by parsifal ("Knock and ye shall receive!" (The Bible, somewhere.))
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To: wbones8765
Always keep in mind: Figures don't lie, but liars figure. If you have ever done any work with data, one thing that you always have to figure is how you are going to handle it. In a soptisticated analysis one always determines if the results are statistically significant. I recall one time that we quickly put a paper together on a topic covering the entire North Atlantic Ocean. At the meeting, a British scientist sidled over and said something to the effect, “ I am sure you know that your results really are not statistically significant.”

Unfortunately, these days, for whatever reasons, both technical and non-technical reports publish garbage without any analysis, or worse, an improper or skewed analysis designed to mislead an unsoptisticated reader. It is not science any more to a large part, it is about grant money and control of your behavior. When results are “proved” using statistics, or computer models; stand by for a ram”.

About all one can do is to do an independent analysis with the info that you have available and stand ready to repel boarders. They are after your life and riches.

10 posted on 07/04/2009 9:32:47 AM PDT by Citizen Tom Paine
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To: gusopol3
The trouble with articles like this one is that, once posted, it could ruin an otherwise perfectly good schedule for one's day.
The one thing that made me laugh before moving on to other things (I will return to this bookmarked site later) is this, at the very bottom of the linked page:

"Bad Behavior" has blocked 15712 access attempts in the last 7 days.

The moonbats are not amused and must try to destroy what they can't understand or manipulate successfully.

11 posted on 07/04/2009 9:38:06 AM PDT by Publius6961 (Change is not a plan; Hope is not a strategy.)
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To: parsifal
"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is part of a phrase attributed to the 19th Century British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli and later popularised in the United States by Mark Twain: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

"Knock and ye shall receive!" (The Bible, somewhere.)

Matt 7:7 and Luke 11:9

12 posted on 07/04/2009 9:47:08 AM PDT by BwanaNdege (Semper Fi)
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To: Citizen Tom Paine

I’ve never been a big math head, but college level geometry worked for me, because it is visual and physical, and college level stat & probability worked for me, because it’s just so entertaining and creative. With the right data and the right hypothesis, you can “prove” just the most bizarre things.

Most people aren’t geared to think that such manipulation is possible, and go with what the “authorities” on a particular matter decree. That’s not so entertaining and creative, it’s downright dangerous. But, it does go right back to my experience with stat & probability in college.


13 posted on 07/04/2009 9:48:09 AM PDT by RegulatorCountry
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To: BwanaNdege
Matt 7:7 and Luke 11:9

Are you sure? Check the wording.

14 posted on 07/04/2009 9:57:31 AM PDT by Constitutionalist Conservative (Two blogs for the price of none!)
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To: RegulatorCountry
Most people aren’t geared to think that such manipulation is possible, and go with what the “authorities” on a particular matter decree. That’s not so entertaining and creative, it’s downright dangerous. But, it does go right back to my experience with stat & probability in college.

Most peoples's eyes glaze over at being presented data such as at the following (excellent) link:

Weather is NOT Climate -- for Dummies

I place myself among the dummies, even though my entire working career I had to be intimately familiar with weather rainfall and intensity curves for California.
The concepts at the above link are quite elementary and easily understood by any person educated minimally in math and science --- the standard in the modern world of "cultural literacy."

Of course, if your entire life is based on "drama," "basket weaving," "gender studies," or other totally useless crap, you must rely on the likes of Gore, Moore, Hansen and the whole panoply of hucksters, instead of your own God-given brain...

15 posted on 07/04/2009 10:02:26 AM PDT by Publius6961 (Change is not a plan; Hope is not a strategy.)
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To: Publius6961
I am acquainted with a few people who are otherwise very intelligent, and certainly better educated than I am, who see a weather forecast for 50% chance of rain, and honestly believe that it's going to rain half the day.

It stopped being amusing long ago, when such a lack of understanding began to be manipulated for geopolitical purposes.

16 posted on 07/04/2009 10:10:33 AM PDT by RegulatorCountry
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To: Publius6961

The Climate science guy seems to be a global warming alarmist and a big-time Hansen supporter, however.


17 posted on 07/04/2009 10:51:50 AM PDT by gusopol3
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To: Constitutionalist Conservative
True, he had condensed the verse.

"Ask, and it will be given to you; seek, and you will find; knock, and it will be opened to you" Matt 7:7

18 posted on 07/04/2009 3:57:56 PM PDT by BwanaNdege (Semper Fi)
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To: gusopol3
The Climate science guy seems to be a global warming alarmist and a big-time Hansen supporter, however.

The Science guy, apparently, is not a statistician, and doesn't acknowledge his limitations.
As mentioned elsewhere, even quite educated people are not immune from the arrogance of limited ignorance.

19 posted on 07/04/2009 6:48:04 PM PDT by Publius6961 (Change is not a plan; Hope is not a strategy.)
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To: gusopol3; rdl6989; Little Bill; IrishCatholic; Normandy; According2RecentPollsAirIsGood; ...
 


Beam me to Planet Gore !

20 posted on 07/07/2009 3:44:24 AM PDT by steelyourfaith ("The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money" - Lady Thatcher)
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