I see a different strategy. Prep for 2012 by building a base of support in 2010. She does this by helping other much more conservative candidates get elected and raising money for them. This forces the GOP to push her to the primary candidate position.
It also creates a loyal backing of representatives and possibly Senators that will work with and for her in 2012 because she was able to show she can get the voters to turn out. Lastly, it shifts the power in Washington away from an extreme liberal super majority to just a liberal majority (might even flip the House). This makes it possible for at least a split and possible conservative majority in 2012 which she will need in order to overturn much of the Obamanation’s illegal and socialist laws that he has crammed down our throats.
The key for Sarah Palin will be the 2010 mid-terms. If she is able to orcestrate a huge victory for the GOP in the House and Senate she will have the world at her feet and ba cinch for the nomination.
I go with your senario