Iran's Military, Clergy Give Hope to Opposition Movement

Wall St Journal ^ | 6/30/2009 | By GERALD F. SEIB

[SonOfDarkSkies]

It's hard to avoid the conclusion that the flames of protest are being slowly smothered in the streets of Iran. Still, even that will leave behind embers of opposition, and the key question in weeks ahead is whether there are any forces within Iran able to keep those embers smoldering.

Anyone who has followed recent Iranian history knows there are two places to look for the answer to that question: the military and the clerical establishment. If cracks in the support for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad start appearing in those institutions, the Tehran Spring set off by protests over Iran's presidential election could evolve into a movement with reach and consequence, and not just a short-lived outburst of frustration.

It's hard for any outsider to know what currents run through these two opaque institutions, of course. At this point, though, a reasonable guess is that the clerical establishment is a more likely source of meaningful opposition to the Ahmadinejad regime than is the military -- but that neither is emerging yet as a real force for change.

Look first at the military. Iran essentially has two different military forces -- or, perhaps more accurately, two and a half.

It has a traditional military, the descendent of the Shah of Iran's imperial army, which is in charge of defending Iran's borders and maintaining a traditional military infrastructure .

But the force that has the real power is Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps. The Revolutionary Guard is a parallel military organization set up after the 1979 revolution to ensure that clerical leaders would have at their disposal a force with unquestioned loyalty and a check on traditional military officers, who were suspect because of their roots in the Shah's regime.

[rawhide]

I read where the general in charge of the armed forces in Tehran was transferred, becaused he refuse to attack the protestors. So something is happening already. And many clerics are out marching with the protestors. I saw them in some of the photos. In fact, Iran’s senior cleric has already spoken out against the government’s recent crackdown.

[Prophet in the wilderness]

IF ? there is a military coup in Iran and set up some kind of government that is more geared towards freedom... our dear Mr. Obama would denounce it and say it's “ Illegal “ and would call for the re-installment of President Ahmadineajah and the Mullahs...

[SonOfDarkSkies]

Yep...that’s exactly what he’d do!