Are we talking about some sort of chaotic collapse of the US or a peaceful negotiation between a seceding Texas and the US? If the former, then all bets are off. But if we're talking peaceful secession, then assets of the US government, such as military hardware, would have to be returned to the US- seizing such equipment would most likely be an act of war. Similarly, any peaceful resolution would involve Texans taking their share of the debt, if they ever wanted to be treated seriously by other countries (or ever again trade with the US). Texas has received the benefits, such as they are, of Federal spending, just like anyone elese, and Texan politicians are just as responsible for the debt as the rest of Congress. You don't get to just walk away from an obligation like that and screw the remaining 49 states.
Who are you, Antonio López de Santa Anna? You sound like Mexico....in 1836.....
The US will need to trade with Texas more than the Texas with the US....
You raise some good points. Maybe I was assuming that Texas (and/or other states) would not actually “pull out” until something of the sort of “Martial Law” was imminent. In my view, that would be the only way to get enough impetus to move forward.
As you said, if there’s chaos in America’s streets, the Feds will have their hands (too) full with all the other stuff they have to tend to. It’ll certainly be a free-for-all, but less so in states that are asserting their sovereignty (such as TN & others).
IMO, it goes down sooner rather than later.