Posted on 06/28/2009 5:49:43 AM PDT by nuconvert
Iranians who demonstrated against the election results are not moving on. They are biding their time, weighing their options -- and seeing their government in a dramatically different light.
By Borzou Daragahi
Reporting from Tehran - The young men and women enter Haft Tir Square tentatively. Their pace slows as they discreetly glance around. They spot the club-wielding uniformed security officials and plainclothes Basiji militiamen, scan the square for other would-be demonstrators.
A woman in a form-fitting mini-coat looks left, then right. There is safety in numbers, but there are few of her kind here for the scheduled gathering, so she quietly moves along, glancing at the shop windows. Maybe she'll circle back in a few minutes.
"The authorities have beaten people up, and killed some," says Hamad, a 26-year-old business student among those navigating the square, cautiously examining eyes and dress.
"Their legitimacy has been damaged," he says. "Now I wait. I do not know what will happen. But the atrocity and cheating will linger in the collective memory. And someday an eruption will occur."
The streets of Tehran are quiet once again. But the multitudes who protested the reelection of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad haven't gone home and put their rage in a closet.
They are carefully weighing their options, balancing personal lives, economic well- being and political aspirations -- and trying to determine whether they have any real leadership.
(Excerpt) Read more at chicagotribune.com ...
pong
70% of the population are under 30 and haven't witnessed the islamic revolution, which was done by ca. 10% of Iranians then (including leftists). In other words about 3% of Iranians have actively fought in the 1979 Revolution. They will soon have passed away.
Of course there are still Khomeinists/islamists among younger people, especially from impoverished stratas of society, but without the generation of the Revolutionaries of 1979, they won't dominate.
The question is whether the regime has the time to succeed in dragging Iran into a war.
Thinking about it, this may be the entire point of their warmongering... they fear a Revolution and thus need an external conflict to rally the nation and to waste "expendable" youngsters, who otherwise would threaten their own rule.
“they fear a Revolution and thus need an external conflict to rally the nation and to waste “expendable” youngsters, who otherwise would threaten their own rule”
I agree. That’s why Israel needs to hold off on any action for a little while longer.
It is over....the opposition was crushed....When you have no means to fight back, and the military stays loyal to the regime in place....well, you have no chance and the opp knows it.
“It is over....the opposition was crushed”
No, it isn’t.
“It is over....the opposition was crushed”
No, it isn’t.
...Your lips to God’s ears (I pray).
You said — No, it isn’t.
—
Sure... , report back in a year and tell us that...
I wonder how many are thinking about Tiananmen Square, today?
Impact on domestic political trends
The Tiananmen square protests dampened the growing concept of political liberalization in communist countries that was popular in the late 1980s; as a result, many democratic reforms that were proposed during the 1980s were swept under the carpet. Although there has been an increase in personal freedom since then, discussions on structural changes to the PRC government and the role of the Communist Party of China remain largely taboo.
Despite early expectations in the West that PRC government would soon collapse and be replaced by the Chinese democracy movement, by the early 21st century the Communist Party of China remained in firm control of the People’s Republic of China, and the student movement which started at Tiananmen was in complete disarray.
The result of what happened in Iran... a long-term *setback* in any release of power from the evil, oppressive and violent governmental idealogy, that is called Islam...
And few will every abandon that evil system of Islam, either, as they continue to choose to be enslaved by Islam.
I watched an interview with someone from Strafor too and was disappointed (not the first time) with some of the misleading/misinformed conclusions. Stratfor is good on some things, but lacking on Iran.
About 1/3 (maybe a little more) of Iran’s population lives in or around the large cities. While it’s true that most of Ahmadinejad’s/regime’s support comes from the rural areas, they have been hit by the affects of the financial crisis in Iran, too. And they have been let down as the rest of the country by the unfulfilled promises of Ahmadinejad. So, to assume that they are still supporting Ahmadinejad in anything close to the numbers that they did 4 yrs ago is absurd.
Next, clerics are joining the protests, and high ranking mullahs & ayatollahs have spoken out against the regime. That is powerful inducement for the rural religious Iranians. The clerics were a strong force in building support against the Shah and for Khomeini , and they can be a powerful force against this regime now.
18 Tir is about 2 wks away. Things will be heating up.
Ahmadinejad is planning a purge of all those who opposed him. For Moussavi and Rafsanjani - either they win out or it’s exile or death, so we will see...Maybe a briefcase bomb at one of Ahmadinejad’s/Khamenei’s meetings, ala the plot against Hitler.
“They would be smart to go underground get the support of the army and plan a takeover”
I hope they can successfully do that
But don't let Obama find out, or he's likely to sell them out to the Ayatollahs as a "gesture of healing" with his fellow Arabs.
"It was a chance for us to express our fury, where I can say that I hate my president."
Word
“18 Tir is about 2 wks away. Things will be heating up.”
No, it won’t and won’t go any where. Hold the popcorn. Mullahs know this just as we do. What is obvious won’t happen.
We’ll see.
“What is obvious won’t happen.”
Maybe not. I guess I’m more optimistic that the not so obvious may occur
Ahmadinejad has been able to make alliance with some countries in Latin America. Latin America's Catholic Church and radical Islam have something in common. Both religious movements have support of the masses to challenge domination of their countries by the Western imperial powers. There is a similarity between radical Islamists in Iran and the supporters of liberal theologians’ movements in Latin America. They both have common ideology to resist the West hegemony. Liberation theology, originated in Catholic Church, emphasizes effort to bring justice to the poor and oppressed. Liberation theology uses democratic socialism as a political theory to combat poverty. Radical Islam similarly uses political aspects of Islam as a force for creating national liberation and economic justice. Ali Shariati is known to be the first Islamist thinker who merged Islam political ideology and liberation theology. He was influenced by Frantz Fanon and Che Guevara, but unlike them who rejected religion in supporting national liberation, Shariati tailored Iran's Islamic ideological roots as a means to mobilize masses for national liberation. However, Shariati was against clerical rule. He died mysteriously before the revolution in 1977, widely believed to be a victim of the Shah's secret police (Savak) assassination. He did not live to see the clerics dominating political leadership in Iran.
Ahmadinejad pursues the same brand of Islamic radicalism as Shariati. He has been able to use religion to challenge the hegemony of the West as the liberation theologian leaders have done in Latin America. In this context Ahmadinejad joins similar brand of political figures such as Luiz Lula da Silva of Brazil, Hugo Chavez Venezuela, Ecuador's President Rafael Correa, and Bolivian President Evo Morales who enjoy popularity among the Roman Catholic Church followers. However, there is an important distinction between the Islamic Republic and the Latin American governments. The Islamic Republic is a quasi-theocracy run by the clerics, while the Latin American countries are secular republics that are only supported by the Church. In the past, some Muslim political leaders have advocated Islamic Socialism. Examples are: Mohamed Ali Jinnah and Zulfakar Ali Bhutto in Pakistan, and Jamal Abdul Nasser in Egypt. Ahmadinejad too has strived for a socially just Islamic State in Iran. It remains to be seen whether he can succeed.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=14143
Is Rafsanjani now ready with his move against Ahmadinejad/Khamenei or has he already made an agreement with khamenei
n Sunday's statement, Rafsanjani lauded Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s decision of last week to grant a five day extension to the deadline set for Iran's legislative body to probe complaints by the three defeated candidates.
“This valuable move by the Supreme Leader in order to attract the people's trust towards the election process was very effective,” Rafsanjani said during a meeting with families of victims of a 1981 bombing in the Iranian capital, which killed many officials.
“I hope those who are involved in this issue thoroughly and fairly review and study the legal complaints,” he added.
Last week, reports said five members of Rafsanjani’s family were taken into custody. Rafsanjani’s daughter, Faeza Hashemi, who is known to have addressed opposition protests, was the last to be released, after reportedly refusing to sign a commitment not to take part in further demonstrations.
Rafsanjani himself was deeply critical of Ahmadinejad during the presidential campaign and has the potential to lead an internal challenge to Khamenei.
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1245924950577&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
The new government is due to be sworn in between July 26 and August 19. But, the approval by the Majlis is not certain.
Nevertheless that was what his talk last Friday in Qom was about according to this article. http://mowj.ir/ShowNews.php?7341 I don't think that the Great Leader Khamenei is pleased, but Rafsanjani is smiling...
Babble about Michael “Icon” Jackson has effectively dminished reporting on Iran.
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