You were saying — Now, people are dropping like flies and by the amount of coverage it’s getting, you’d never know there was a virus that deadly and unpredictable going around.
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This was a while back that you said this, but I was doing some reading up on the H1N1 virus, and came across this thread. Your phrase “dropping like flies” is the exact same phrase that my grandmother used when describing the 1918 flu to me when I was a kid.
She said that they were dropping like flies in the street. I thought she was using colorful language at the time, and I perceived that phrase as an exaggeration, but I now find out that they were, indeed, dropping like flies in the street, where people would have no symptoms at the beginning of the day and when going home after work, there would be people “dropping like flies” right in the street and dead, on the spot.
There were body carts sent around to pick up dead people (in the street) apparently. My grandmother said that all her neighbors had dead kids but our family didn’t have anyone who died. So, we were fortunate.
I hope I’ve got some natural resistance in the “genes”... :-)
Need For Accurate Estimates Of The Severity Of The New H1N1 Virus
Main Category: Swine Flu
Also Included In: Public Health
http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/157669.php
A paper published on bmj.com reports that there is a need for precise estimates of the severity of the new H1N1 virus. Experts need to assess in particular how many deaths might arise over the course of the pandemic. This will be the focus of healthcare planning over the upcoming months.
Those forecasts will be helpful in deciding whether to put into practice social distancing measures, such as school closures.
Initially, information suggests that this new Influenza A (H1N1) virus is relatively mild. The case fatality ratios which are the total number of deaths due to the disease divided by the total number of cases are around 0.5 percent. This is comparable to the upper range of that seen for seasonal influenza, and it shows relatively low hospitalization rates.
On the other hand, severity appears to fluctuate considerably among countries. Fatal cases have been much younger than for seasonal influenza.
Researchers at the Imperial College London studied the complexity of assessing the severity of the new virus. They indicate that in most infectious diseases there is a risk of predisposition that leads towards diagnosis of more severe and hospitalized cases. This results in overestimation of the case fatality ratio.
However, some deaths caused by flu might not be recognized as such. Flu infections can momentarily amplify the risk of vascular death, such as heart attacks and strokes. As a result, there can be an underestimation of the case fatality ratio.
The time delay between disease onset and death is another main cause of bias. The authors explain this can lead to an underestimate of the case fatality ratio, especially in the early phase of an epidemic.
The authors mention: “In order to get a clear picture of the severity of the H1N1 virus, it is vital to take these and other factors into account.” They recommend study designs and statistical analysis methods to develop our capability in obtaining reliable case fatality ratios.
They say in closing that this is crucial and that they will guarantee that any changes in the virulence of the virus are rapidly detected so that mitigation policies are applied correctly.
Dr Tini Garske, lead author of the study from the Medical Research Council (MRC) Centre for Outbreak Analysis & Modelling at Imperial College London, wrote: “Accurately predicting the severity of this swine flu pandemic is a very tricky business, and our research shows that this can only be achieved if data is collected according to well designed study protocols and analyzed in a more sophisticated way than is frequently being performed at present.”
“If we fail to get an accurate prediction of severity, we will not be providing healthcare planners, doctors and nurses, with the information that they need to ensure they are best prepared to fight the pandemic as we head into the flu season this autumn.”
UK:
Swine flu: pregnant women told to stay home
Steven Swinford
July 19, 2009
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/health/article6719356.ece
PREGNANT women and parents with babies will be advised to avoid crowds and unnecessary journeys on public transport in an attempt to limit the effects of the swine flu virus on the most vulnerable.
The Department of Health will publish new guidelines on the National Health Service website today that emphasise the risk to pregnant women and young children.
The Royal College of Midwives and the Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists are recommending changes in lifestyle, including staying indoors when practical. Expectant mothers should also limit the movements of their other children so they do not bring the virus home.
Pregnant women are advised to avoid crowds where possible: “If they normally travel on the Tube or on crowded trains in rush hour they might want to leave later or earlier,” Sue Macdonald from the Royal College of Midwives said. “This is about being sensible and being aware of the risks.”
The government will not advise women to delay pregnancy until the swine flu pandemic has passed, as is recommended by the National Childbirth Trust. The latter was accused of scaremongering by the Royal College of General Practitioners.
More than 700 people have been taken to hospital with the virus and, of the 29 who have died, four were young children and two were mothers who had recently given birth. It also emerged this weekend that:
- Hospitals face a potential crisis over the limited number of intensive-care beds. In the worst-case scenario, seriously ill patients could have to make way for swine flu victims.
- The manufacturers of the new swine flu vaccine are to be given legal indemnity amid concerns over any side effects. Regulators are due to fast-track its approval.
- Some patients, whatever their illness, face waits of up to 11 hours before getting a call back from weekend and evening GPs’ services. Calls are running at double the normal rate.
- Security guards are to protect NHS supplies of Tamiflu when the drug is handed out at temporary distribution centres, such as community buildings.
British holidaymakers suspected of suffering from swine flu are being prevented from boarding flights. Check-in staff at Heathrow and other main British airports are vetting passengers for possible infection and turning away those suspected of being having the disease.
Some countries, including Thailand, Egypt, Turkey and China, have installed thermal body scanners to identify passengers with fever.
British Airways and Virgin Atlantic confirmed this weekend that its staff were not allowing suspected sufferers to travel. A BA spokesman said some passengers had been turned away at check-in because they had flu symptoms.
Passengers who are suffering from swine flu but are not spotted at check-in may find themselves quarantined on their arrival overseas. A group of 52 British children and teachers is being held in quarantine in a hotel in China after four pupils were diagnosed with swine flu on arrival in the country on Tuesday and sent to hospital. The trip was organised by the Specialist Schools and Academies Trust and involves schoolchildren from around the country.
Among pupils affected are some from Cheltenham ladies college, Gloucestershire. “The Chinese authorities are taking a very cautious approach to the flu and have quarantined the group and hospitalised some eight children who are showing symptoms,” the headmistress, Vicky Tuck, said.
Russia urges mass vaccination
July 20, 2009
http://www.straitstimes.com/Breaking%2BNews/World/Story/STIStory_405606.html
RUSSIA’S top health official warned on Monday that H1N1 flu was spreading within the country and urged Russians to get vaccinations.
‘I think that by the end of today we will have reported around at least five or six more (people) whom we have confirmed as sick’ with the A(H1N1) virus, Gennady Onishchenko, Russia’s public health chief, said. ‘We have registered an increase, a sharp increase in the number of individuals whom we... certify as sick,’ he said at a news conference.
Mr Onishchenko warned that infection with the virus may spike in the autumn as Russians return from holidays and urged the population to get vaccinated. ‘I advise maximum vaccination,’ he said.
The total number of H1N1 flu cases registered in Russia since late May has reached nine so far, authorities said.
All the sick Russians contracted the virus while travelling abroad, Mr Onishchenko said. He warned however that the virus was propagating further within Russia and said contamination was possible within the country.
‘The virus is now not just Moscow’s concern but also that of the regions’ outside the capital, he said.
Confirmed or suspected cases have been registered in the country’s five regions, including the cities of Saint Petersburg, Tomsk in Siberia and Perm in the Urals, he said.
‘We should be getting ready to register these cases. There’s no need to make a tragedy or panic out of it.’
He also said mass production of swine flu vaccine should be launched by September, noting Russia could produce 40 million doses.
Canada’s Inuit A/H1N1 flu cases much younger than other groups
www.chinaview.cn 2009-07-18 06:10:47
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-07/18/content_11726907.htm
OTTAWA, July 17 (Xinhua) — The median age of the A/H1N1 flu cases among Canada’s Inuit population is significantly younger than other groups, the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) reported Friday.
The median age of Inuit cases is nine years old, compared with that of First Nations (the Indian aboriginal people) at 19 years of age and that of non-aboriginal Canadians at 18, the agency said.
The report did not explain why the median age of Inuit cases is lower than other groups.
Median means the midway point between the youngest case and the oldest case.
The PHAC pointed out the Inuit people also has a higher rate of infections compared with Canada’s two other aboriginal groups. Among the country’s 10,156 confirmed cases, 151 have been identified as First Nations people, 30 have been Metis and 390 have been from Nunavut, which has a predominantly Inuit population.