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Swine flu best case scenario will cause ‘several million deaths’

Published 8 hours ago

As the H1N1 swine flu virus broaches 2,800 deaths worldwide - up over 600 in the past week - experts are preparing the public for the bigger numbers.
The World Health Organization announced on Friday that the H1N1 swine flu virus has not yet mutated to become a more or less virulent strain - and that by WHO counts, 2,837 people worldwide have died from exposure to the virus. WHO also acknowledged that all cases of H1N1 infection and death were no longer being counted.
However, the increase in deaths to 2,837, up from 2,185 the week prior, represents an increase of 652 fatalities in a week - a 30 percent jump. WHO sought to put the numbers in perspective, stating that the increases in death totals were a reflection of the more widespread universe of global infections. With larger populations becoming infected, significantly higher fatality totals should be expected.
The WHO estimates that the swine flu virus could infect 2 billion people - a third of the global population. Roughly 250,000 cases have been confirmed by WHO laboratories to date - but the true numbers are far higher, as WHO officials have no longer insisted that their 193 member states continue providing figures.
“In the best case scenario we have today, we will still have a moderate virus that is projected to cause several million deaths,” Dr. Tammam Aloudat, senior health officer at the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, told reporters. “Which means that even in the best case scenario, we do have an emergency on our hands, an emergency of a scale different from what we have seen before in the modern era.”
Meanwhile, as vaccine producers rush to bring large-scale dosages to the worldwide market, some parents are beginning to wonder if the vaccine may be more of a concern than the disease. In 1976, a swine flu scare led to the distribution of a vaccine that caused neurological problems and fatalities of its own.
But the risks are measured in the numbers - and in the preconditions and ailments of individuals that may be exposed to the virus. While H1N1 exhibits predominantly mild symptoms - asthmatics, pregnant women, those with respiratory/heart ailments, and individuals with compromised immunity are at considerably higher risk.

http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/278814