H1N1 flu victim collapsed on way to hospital [Latest H1N1 updates downthread]

It's bordering on the ridiculous here metmom, last night they had a French Journalist on and a guy from NY Times, and they were questioning the validity of the information the British Government is putting out through third party media sources, then retracting it during live interviews.
She said the French have only 400 cases, and at that point, I turned over, nothing I'm seeing, experiencing or hearing from my many friends and associates here is even remotely similar to what I'm seeing on the news channels, it's all a facade.

I’m pinging all of Smokin’ Joe’s ping list( and some other freepers ) to the below article

Scientists say each person with swine flu will infect two others
27. July 2009 01:19

Scientists in New Zealand who have been examining the spread of the new H1N1 flu (swine flu), say the virus appears more infectious than previously thought and a person who becomes ill with the new strain will on average infect almost two others.

Their research which is the first estimate for New Zealand suggests that almost 80% of the population could catch the virus.

The researchers from the University of Otago in Wellington say that the transmission potential of a virus in a pandemic is typically summarised by the reproduction number which indicates the average number of secondary cases generated by a single primary case.

Associate Professor Michael Baker and Dr. Nick Wilson from the Department of Public Health at the University of Otago, Wellington worked in collaboration with Dr. Hiroshi Nishiura, a mathematical modeller based at the University of Utrecht in Holland and their results offer the first published estimate for the reproduction number of the pandemic in the southern hemisphere.

Associate Professor Baker says their best estimate of the reproduction number for the Influenza A virus in New Zealand is 1.96, which is higher than the number previously used in modelling estimates, where a lower estimate of 1.5 was used early in the pandemic based on data from Mexico.

The researchers say a reproduction number of 1.96 means that up to 79% of an affected population could ultimately catch H1N1 influenza during the epidemic, though only two-thirds of those infected may be expected to show symptoms - but this would require a high level of mixing between groups and they say effective public health interventions could lower that proportion.

Published estimates of the reproduction number in the current influenza pandemic have ranged from 1.4-1.6 in Mexico to 2.0-2.6 in Japan and it is thought that New Zealand has a higher reproduction number than Mexico, because of the winter season and large clusters of cases in certain settings.

The researchers say that further work will be needed to produce more robust estimates for New Zealand and this latest estimate could be reduced after more accurate demographic analysis, and if public hygiene behaviour and health interventions are effective.

Dr. Wilson says the results reinforce the need for those with influenza symptoms to do everything they can to prevent infecting others - by staying away from work and school while ill and practicing good ‘cough etiquette’ - all of which will help to lower the spread of the new virus.

The team say though the current estimated reproduction number is higher than that of the Spanish influenza pandemic of 1918-19, the mortality rate in this pandemic is very low compared to that disaster, in which thousands died.

Earlier this month in a separate published study, the two New Zealand scientists estimated that the mortality rates in developed countries from this pandemic could be as low as one death out of 10,000 cases for this new pandemic strain.

The research is published in the New Zealand Medical Journal.
http://www.news-medical.net/news/20090727/Scientists-say-each-person-with-swine-flu-will-infect-two-others.aspx

Saudi Arabian swine flu fatality
27 July 2009
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/8170244.stm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/health-agency-to-test-link-between-flu-vitamin-d/article1231852/

Health agency to test link between flu, vitamin D
By screening infected blood, researchers hoping to find new ways to fight the virus
Martin Mittelstaedt
From Monday’s Globe and Mail
Last updated on Sunday, Jul. 26, 2009 09:32PM EDT

In an effort to discover new ways to fight the swine flu, the Public Health Agency of Canada intends to test the blood of people contracting the ailment to check their vitamin D levels.

The agency is taking the unconventional action to try to find out whether those with mild cases of the flu have more of the sunshine vitamin circulating in their bodies than those who develop severe or even deadly reactions to the H1N1 virus.

If researchers determine that the vitamin protects against the swine flu, it will give health authorities another line of attack against the pandemic, besides such common-sense approaches as large-scale vaccinations and hand-washing campaigns.

A finding of a link to the vitamin would mean that people could reduce the odds of being harmed by the new flu bug by simply popping a low-cost supplement that is widely available at almost every drugstore.

Scientists have long been wondering about a possible connection between vitamin D and influenza because of the striking observations in both the northern and southern hemispheres that flu is mostly a wintertime ailment. This is the period each year when sunshine isn’t intense enough to allow people to make the vitamin the natural way – in naked skin exposed to ultraviolet light – causing levels of the nutrient to plunge among those not taking supplements.

The public health agency confirmed the vitamin D research in an e-mail to The Globe in response to questions about the testing.

“Epidemiological evidence suggests a role for vitamin D in seasonal influenza,” the agency said, adding that the low amounts of the nutrient in the winter “appear to correlate with the occurrence of seasonal influenza.”

The annual pattern of influenza – bad in winter and rare in summer – is the reason many health experts are worried that the swine flu epidemic, now running at relatively modest infection rates, will go into overdrive starting in the fall.

The federal health agency cautioned that a causal relationship between not having a lot of vitamin D and the risks posed by the flu remains to be proved, but is said the approach may offer promise in reducing the severity of infections.

A number of university and hospital researchers, in conjunction with the agency, started investigating the possible role of vitamin D and the severity of flu symptoms last year, well before the current outbreak began in Mexico this spring.

But the agency said it has adapted this continuing study to the H1N1 outbreak. As part of the research, the investigators will also look at whether a person’s genetic makeup has something to do with the intensity of the flu they experience.

Although not much is known about the ability of vitamin D to mitigate the effects of the swine flu, the agency is citing one tantalizing piece of research suggesting the approach is more than a long shot and actually holds promise in combatting the new pandemic.

In the 1940s, researchers experimenting with mice found that those receiving diets low in vitamin D were more susceptible to an experimental swine-flu infection than those that received adequate amounts of the nutrient, according to the e-mail from the agency.

The reason vitamin D might be able to fight the flu isn’t known, but the prevailing hypothesis is that the nutrient is able to strengthen the immune system, allowing those infected to better fight off their illness. Vitamin D has been found, for instance, to offer some protection against tuberculosis.

“The evidence is almost overwhelming that vitamin D appears to be making the immune system attack foreign entities better,” said Reinhold Vieth, a professor in the department of nutritional sciences at the University of Toronto.

He said the agency’s research on H1N1 severity and vitamin D levels “bodes really well” for figuring out whether the nutrient can be used to help combat the virus.

The agency said that the way the nutrient might protect against the flu “is not fully understood,” but it said new research “suggests that vitamin D induces the production of antimicrobial substances in the body that possess neutralizing activity against a variety of infectious agents, including the influenza virus.”

"the mortality rates in developed countries from this pandemic could be as low as one death out of 10,000 cases for this new pandemic strain." GOOD!

Israel confirms first swine flu fatality
http://www.timesoftheinternet.com/95619.html
July 27

Israel’s Health Ministry confirmed the country’s first fatality from the H1N1 virus Monday, lab test results showed.

Hospital officials said they suspected a 35-year-old man admitted to a hospital in the southern Israeli resort town of Eilat died over the weekend from the swine flu virus.

The Health Ministry opted to wait for the results of lab tests before confirming the suspicions, Israeli media reports said Monday.

According to the ministry, approximately 1,000 Israelis were diagnosed with the virus, most with minor cases. A directive issued by the Health Ministry warned members of the public suffering from chronic lung diseases, asthma, heart diseases and obesity were at a greater risk to contract the virus than other sectors of the population.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=—NqqB2nhBE

Mexico prepares for more swine flu as cases rise in Chiapas
http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/world/07/27/09/mexico-prepares-more-swine-flu-cases-rise-chiapas
07/27/2009

MEXICO CITY - Much of Mexico has relaxed after swine flu first unleashed a wave of panic here and across the world three months ago, but cases are now soaring in the country’s impoverished southeast.

Authorities insist that A(H1N1) is under control, despite a peak in Chiapas — an area with poor indigenous communities, popular tourist sites, and heavy traffic of Central American immigrants heading to the United States.

Scientists have now identified the first known case as a female baby who tested positive on February 24 and survived. The girl from San Luis Potosi state in north Mexico had no known contact with pig farms.

Mexico is well placed to handle a rise in cases expected to coincide with colder temperatures from November, officials say.

“What could have been a disadvantage by being the first is now a strategic advantage, because now we know what to do (and) how to do it,” government advisor and doctor Pablo Kuri told AFP.

The government is currently carrying out targeted health campaigns in the worst-affected areas.

Eight of the last 10 deaths — bringing Mexico’s total to 138 — were in Chiapas, which has the country’s highest caseload out of some 14,800 reported nationwide.

The situation in Chiapas is out of control, with between 100 and 130 cases reported daily, the federal health ministry said this month.

Local authorities have played down the situation, however, and have yet to clamp down on public gatherings as in other areas.

Initial panic in April led to strict measures, including shuttered schools, restaurants, tourist sites and sports venues in the sprawling capital.

Scientists now say that a handful of cases first appeared in northern and central Mexico in March, before the virus peaked in April.

“It’s complicated to say where it originated but the earlier samples are not from rural areas,” Celia Alpuche, head of the Institute of Epidemiological Diagnosis and Reference (INDRE), told AFP.

The economy — already battered by the crisis in Mexico’s main trading partner the United States — was expected to show a big hit when figures take the outbreak into account. GDP already fell 8.2 percent in the first quarter.

The A(H1N1) outbreak hobbled tourism, which provides the country’s third source of foreign income after oil and remittances. Authorities in May launched a multi-million-dollar campaign to bring tourists back.

After a virtual shutdown in parts of the country in April, few reminders of the disease are now apparent.

A handful wear surgical face masks while body thermometers and simple health questionnaires have joined other checks at airports.

The country of more than 100 million people has two million doses of Tamiflu in reserve and has ordered 20 million vaccines, if they are ready, to begin delivery in December, according to the health ministry.

Vaccination against seasonal flu will start for at risk groups on October 5.

A laboratory near Mexico City is meanwhile studying nationwide samples to identify the prevalence of virus and the biggest risk areas.

“It’s very important to finish this study before the fall,” Alpuche said.

Public awareness campaigns are due to return in October as a reminder that the flu has not disappeared.

“I think there are areas that have returned to completely normal life and you have to remind people that the new normality needs to include new habits” such as frequent hand washing, Kuri said.

But he added: “People can’t live in a permanent state of stress.”

Sorta like the Fabergé Organics shampoo commercial: “You tell two friends, and they’ll tell two friends, and so on...”

Ping to post 444.

Interesting post about Vitamin D.

yep :)

Are your friends doing good ?

thanks !

According to our daughter-in-law (an R.N.) taking vitamin *D3* greatly helps boost your immune system to reduce getting the flu.

Something about D3 being the same as what your body produces....

But he added: “People can’t live in a permanent state of stress.”

__________________

You can run but you can’t hide.

Just have to be prepared.

Thanks & Hope you are all doing good :)

www.cdc.gov

**Table. U.S. Human Cases of H1N1 Flu Infection**
Web page updated July 24, 2009,
11:00 AM ET
Data reported to CDC by July 23, 2009, 1:00 PM ET.
States and Territories*	Confirmed and Probable Cases	Deaths
States
Alabama	477 cases	0 deaths
Alaska	272 cases	0 deaths
Arizona	947 cases	15 deaths
Arkansas	131 cases	0 deaths
California	3161 cases	52 deaths
Colorado	171 cases	0 deaths
Connecticut	1713 cases	8 deaths
Delaware	381 cases	0 deaths
Florida	2915 cases	23 deaths
Georgia	222 cases	1 death
Hawaii	1424 cases	3 deaths
Idaho	166 cases	0 deaths
Illinois	3404 cases	17 deaths
Indiana	291 cases	1 death
Iowa	165 cases	0 deaths
Kansas	204 cases	0 deaths
Kentucky	143 cases	0 deaths
Louisiana	232 cases	0 deaths
Maine	145 cases	0 deaths
Maryland	766 cases	4 deaths
Massachusetts	1370 cases	5 deaths
Michigan	515 cases	9 deaths
Minnesota	670 cases	3 deaths
Mississippi	252 cases	0 deaths
Missouri	76 cases	1 death
Montana	94 cases	0 deaths
Nebraska	313 cases	1 death
Nevada	467 cases	0 deaths
New Hampshire	247 cases	0 deaths
New Jersey	1414 cases	15 deaths
New Mexico	232 cases	0 deaths
New York	2738 cases	63 deaths
North Carolina	483 cases	5 deaths
North Dakota	63 cases	0 deaths
Ohio	188 cases	1 death
Oklahoma	189 cases	1 death
Oregon	524 cases	5 deaths
Pennsylvania	1960 cases	8 deaths
Rhode Island	192 cases	2 deaths
South Carolina	244 cases	0 deaths
South Dakota	45 cases	0 deaths
Tennessee	283 cases	1 death
Texas	5151 cases	27 deaths
Utah	988 cases	16 deaths
Vermont	59 cases	0 deaths
Virginia	327 cases	2 deaths
Washington	658 cases	7 deaths
Washington, D.C.	45 cases	0 deaths
West Virginia	243 cases	0 deaths
Wisconsin	6222 cases	6 deaths
Wyoming	111 cases	0 deaths
Territories
American Samoa	8 cases	0 deaths
Guam	1 case	0 deaths
Puerto Rico	20 cases	0 deaths
Virgin Islands	49 cases	0 deaths
TOTAL (55)*	43,771 cases	302 deaths
Includes the District of Columbia, American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. July 24, 2009 is the last day that CDC is providing individual confirmed and probable cases of novel H1N1 influenza. CDC will report the total number of hospitalizations and deaths each week, and continue to use its traditional surveillance systems to track the progress of the novel H1N1 flu outbreak. For more information about CDC’s novel H1N1 influenza surveillance system, see Questions & Answers About CDC's Novel H1N1 Influenza Surveillance. International Human Cases of H1N1 Flu Infection See: World Health Organization. NOTE:* Because of daily reporting deadlines, the state totals reported by CDC may not always be consistent with those reported by state health departments. If there is a discrepancy between these two counts, data from the state health departments should be used as the most accurate number.

Empty schools beckon as parents keep healthy children at home

News | Published in The TES on 24 July, 2009
By: Helen Ward
http://www.tes.co.uk/article.aspx?storycode=6018439

Government hopes of avoiding closures may founder at start of new term as swine flu anxiety gathers pace

Fears over swine flu saw dozens of parents across England keeping their healthy children out of school during the last week of term.

The decision suggests some families may continue to withdraw pupils from class at the start of the new term to avoid infection, even if the Government decides schools should remain open.

The H1N1 virus is spreading rapidly, with about 1,000 schools in England reporting cases before the end of term.

Since last month, the Government’s advice has been that containment is no longer possible and schools where pupils have the virus do not have to close.

The Department for Children, Schools and Families has updated its guidance to schools, saying the summer break may be extended, although it currently expects schools to re-open as normal in September.

But it will be monitoring developments over the holiday and contacting schools in the last week of August.

Mick Brookes, general secretary of heads union NAHT said the virus put his members in a difficult situation.

“The decision would have to be made in the balance of risks,” he said. “I have heard of parents keeping their children off because of swine flu, but also heads saying they will shut the school and parents saying, ‘What do we do for childcare?’

“If a child has underlying health problems, it may be it is reasonable for parents to keep them off. The question is, (for) how long?

Teachers from across England told The TES that parents withdrew healthy children during the final week of term.

A teacher at a Leeds secondary where a teenager has been diagnosed with the virus said only half of Year 10 pupils had attended one of the final days of term.

“Loads of parents have been turning up to take their kids home since they found out we had swine flu,” she said. “They don’t want to increase the risk of their child catching flu and having to cancel their summer holidays. They might as well just shut the school.”

Elsewhere, a primary teacher said one of her colleagues had contracted swine flu, as well as a nursery pupil, while other cases were suspected.

“We gave them the choice whether or not to still bring children, so on Monday and Tuesday I had a class of seven,” she said.

“In fairness, it’s the end of term and we are doing nothing productive. And I would be concerned if I had young children with asthma or other complications.”

Over 100 British children and teachers on a trip to China were quarantined in their hotel last weekend after eight were diagnosed with swine flu (see picture, top). They were part of a tour organised by the Specialist Schools and Academies Trust and the British Council.

Of the total number of children affected in the UK, at least 652 are in hospital, including 53 in critical care.

Researchers at Imperial College London this week argued that there was a strong argument for school closures. Writing in The Lancet Infectious Diseases journal, they said early and prolonged closures could reduce the number of cases at the peak of the pandemic by up to 40 per cent.

But they also found that, in some cases, school closures had no effect, either because they came too late or because children mixed with each other outside school.

They also pointed out that school closure results in economic and social costs. Previous research on pandemics estimated that peak absence from the healthcare workforce at 45 per cent, with 30 per cent due to school closure.

Editorial, page 2

OPEN AND SHUT CASE: DO SCHOOL CLOSURES HALT SPREAD OF INFECTION?

2008: Hong Kong

Primary schools and kindergartens were closed for two weeks after the deaths of two children, apparently from influenza. A reduction in the number of cases followed, but this was expected as the outbreak had already peaked. The reduction was no greater than during a previous outbreak in 2007, when schools remained open.

Conclusion: No

2000: Israel

Three weeks into the outbreak, elementary schools closed because of a teachers’ strike; there was a 43 per cent reduction in weekly infections. After the strike, respiratory illness rates rebounded, suggesting the closures had affected the spread.

Conclusion: Yes

1984-2006: France

A recent study of the effect of holidays on influenza-like illnesses found that they prevent about one in six seasonal cases. But the authors pointed out that children’s contact with their peers was sometimes reduced during holidays because they went abroad - something they might not do if closures took place in term-time.

Conclusion: Perhaps

1957: France

Because of worries that school closures might increase anxiety and create a crisis in this flu outbreak, they were carried out piecemeal in different areas. Decisions to close individual schools were delayed, often until after 50-75 per cent of children had been ill. This late intervention was judged to be ineffective.

Conclusion: No, too late

1918: US

School closure was just one of several measures - shutting churches, bans on mass gatherings, mandatory mask wearing and disinfection - taken to prevent the spread of the influenza virus. Mortality was reduced by 10 per cent to 30 per cent, but it is not possible to estimate the specific effect of school closure.

Conclusion: Unclear

Hi DVDMom.

Yah, we went out to the pub for a few glasses of wine on Friday evening, and on Sunday we got together for Sunday dinner at my friends house, all her symptoms have gone, but her Husband said he felt slightly ill on Saturday, but was okay by Sunday, he wasn't interested in going to the Doctors, and entertained himself on the sofa with football, apparently.

My friends friend (of all the people I know who've had it, she has had the worst symptoms, and had a day in bed), who I mentioned previously who was also confirmed has totally recovered too, both had Tamiflu prescribed after GP visits .
My two boys are with their Nannan on holiday here in the UK for a week, and they're fine now.

Another close family friend who lives just down my road (whom I was with on Saturday evening at her Husbands 40th Birthday Party) was sent home from work today though, she works at a DIY retail store and was feeling unwell, with sneezing, runny nose, headache and slight fever, her manager immediately asked her to go home. Knowing her very well, I don't think she will go to her GP unless her condition gets quite a bit worse.

Regarding the School absences, although I bet many parents didn't risk infection if a teacher or student was confirmed with flu as they'd have already got thier Summer holidays booked, but it's important to note the UK Education Authorities levy fines for Parents taking kids out of School for holidays in term time, but never do in the last week of the Summer breakup term as they do leisure activities mostly.
Many parents (me included) took kids out of School for the last few days (we were already on our Holidays on Thursday last) of the week prior to Summer break.

The Schools Minister said on the news last week that School closures are out of the question after the Summer break, which kinda conflicts with their preaching of staying at home if possible, the messages from the muppets in Westminster are absolutely ridiculous.
As I mentioned a few posts up, they're covertly telling the press one thing for hype, then saying another on TV during interviews, I suspect it's all done to confuse people and make them more anxious, all playing into their hands now they've completely usurped the medical profession regarding diagnosing and treating this 'pandemic'!

How's this 'pandemic' playing out in your town, any cases yet with your friends?

That’s very interesting - thanks for the ping.