IRAN: Endgame?

Hot Air ^ | June 22, 2009 8:46 am | Ed Morrissey

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

The moment of truth has come in Iran.  The Guardian Council and Ali Khamenei have played their last card — and it might be a trump.  The Revolutionary Guard has now threatened to meet the protestors in the streets and give them a “revolutionary confrontation”:

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard is threatening to crush any further opposition protests over the disputed presidential election and warns demonstrators to prepare for a “revolutionary confrontation” if they take to the streets again.

The country’s most powerful military force ordered demonstrators to “end the sabotage and rioting activities” and said their resistance is a “conspiracy” against Iran.

A statement posted Monday on the Guard’s website warned protesters to “be prepared for a resolution and revolutionary confrontation with the Guards, Basij and other security forces and disciplinary forces.”

The mullahs have given up on the police and Basijis alone.  The Friday warning from Ali Khamenei, the prince formerly known as the divine and Supreme Leader, did nothing to stop Iranians from filling the streets this weekend.  Increasing brutality from the Basijis and police resulted in hundreds of arrests, dozens of deaths, and one national martyr for the opposition, but no end to the protests.  The police and Basijis have failed to put Iranians back in their place as subjects, and the only option left is a military operation to clear the streets.

If the Revolutionary Guard makes good on its threat, the transition to military dictatorship will be complete.  The mullahs will have no credibility with the people and will remain completely reliant on its army to maintain power internally.  The Revolutionary Guard will understand this well, and will quickly turn Khamenei and his elders into nothing more than puppets for the Guard’s purposes.  The question then will be whether the Guard can maintain control over 70 million Iranians who have already lost faith in their theocrats and never assented to rule by military force.

That assumes the Revolutionary Guard will remain cohesive.  Their senior leadership will see this as a way to grab power, but the rank and file may find it difficult to go to war with their own people, especially against Iranians protesting an election that the Revolutionary Guard considers stolen from one of their own.  Will the Revolutionary Guard maintain cohesion as they march into Iran’s cities and kill women and children?  The fact that the mullahs have to play this card makes the question all the more critical.

Update: Unconfirmed reports have the opposition calling for a general strike of indeterminate length starting tomorrow.  That will be difficult for a military operation to counter, and will further undermine the mullahs, if successful.

Update II: Allahpundit retweets a report from Tehran that claims the streets have gone quiet today, with Basiji and police patrolling in large numbers.  The strike may be the next phase, if it’s true and it’s successful.

[mad_as_he$$]

Hey lay off!!! We had a riot because the Lakers won. What more do you want? /s

[Allegra]

[ScreamingFist]

Only the Rev Guard can remove them, and it's still unclear what their intentions are right now.

Interesting observation. An army has to eat, an army needs supplies.....a general strike effectively shuts down, food, transportation....etc. How long can strikers stop the country...? They either start marching Iranians people out as slaves......or the mullahs lose.

[Miss Behave]

BUMP BUMP BUMP, Allegra! Hope all is well with you, and THANKS for all you do!

[Marine_Uncle]

I see at this IranTracker exactly the stuff I just blabed about in another post. Shut the damn country down. Make it known, the people will now determine what happens and what does not. Let more of the IRGC forces decide if they want to go in with the regular military forces and police forces that will eventually move over to the people's side.
I would bet a dime, there are many older and not so old military folk that would love to see all the Mad Dog types purged from their midst along with the Bearded ones ran out of the country, or forced to stay in Qom and just play Islamic religion practices, say sit around and read their books and beat their wives when they feel frustrated.
If we start getting solid news that the regular military branches will not let Mad Dog and his bearded masters play any more games, then the Iranian citizens just might have a new lease on life. One with the right type of westernized thinking leaders to step in and make them a good neighbor in their region as well as restoring a position within the world community.
Of course the reality that some twenty or more million older folks are still mostly ill-educated and living in their little world of socialism. How will they act. Will there be a real full blown civil war in due time.
Dictator regimes world over must be following these events with concern.

[SE Mom]

I just found this on twitter- it is a gruesome new video of more young people shot and dying.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=npdISZUtdmU

[Marine_Uncle]

Perhaps it is time for some here to help me post the following CSPAN one hour session on a reporter roundup listening to the Shah of Iran's son, fmr. Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi
HERE.
Where the CSPAN title is: Shah's Son Says Iran Unrest Threatens Clerical Rule.
Reza answers a lot of questions regarding how this growing movement by the people is developing, and why.
As suspected by some of us. It is much more then simply a frustration of voter fraud in his opinion. But one of long term dissatisfication with the clergy ruling over them where the people know according to their Shia background the clergy have no right to rule over them.
Also the long term failure to raise their standard of living, and suppression of basic human rights. In short many feel they live in a police state with no hope.
I'll let it go at that. Draw your own conclusions.