[FreeReign]

My view there is philosophical: it may or may not be right and I think it would be hard to test. Regarding your analysis, I think you may be falling into a post hoc ergo propter hoc trap.

You're the one who made the initial claim saying that "being in a position to be able to criticize the US prez credibly may put Mousavi in a stronger position".

All I can do in response is present the facts.

President Bush's policy was to criticize Ahmadinejad and support the protesters.

Ahmadinejad's response has been to criticize the US president.

The protests have increased.

Ahmadinejad's support has decreased.

If you want to continue make the criticizing-the-US-prez-may-make-Mousavi-stronger claim, so be it.

[Pallas]

President Bush's policy was to criticize Ahmadinejad and support the protesters. Ahmadinejad's response has been to criticize the US president. The protests have increased. Ahmadinejad's support has decreased. You appear to find Bush's policy had an effect of weakening Iranians' support for Ahmadinejad, increasing protests against him and the clerical regime, or both. I doubt it. More likely the reasons are simply thuggery, authoritarianism, theocracy too harsh even for many Muslims, and obvious election fraud with a bad economy in the background. However, your approach does have the virtue of looking at things empirically.