A KC-135 of U.S Air Force takes off from Manas U.S. air base near Bishkek
Posted on 06/19/2009 11:33:20 PM PDT by bruinbirdman
The U.S. military has now started preparing to leave the Manas base in Bishkek as part of its anticipated eviction, according to Colonel Christopher Bence, the newly-appointed commander of the airbase. The United States military will vacate Manas by August 18, as the Kyrgyz regime first officially demanded in February.
A KC-135 of U.S Air Force takes off from Manas U.S. air base near Bishkek
Despite these latest developments, the Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev might still overturn his decision to shut the base. The final verdict is contingent on a possible agreement between the U.S. President Barack Obama and his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev in July when both leaders meet in Moscow. Should Obama and Medvedev agree to "reset" their view of Kyrgyzstan's place within U.S.-Russian relations, the base might avoid closure. The Manas base might not be the top priority during Obama's visit to Moscow, but depending on the outcome of the meeting, it will determine Bakiyev's own stance towards the future U.S. military presence in Kyrgyzstan.
Last week the possibility of retaining the U.S. base in Kyrgyzstan was apparently increasing for two main reasons. First, Obama addressed a letter to the Kyrgyz government expressing his gratitude for its collaboration in the anti-terrorist campaign in Afghanistan. The U.S. leader then expressed hope for more fruitful cooperation in the future. Kyrgyz officials, in return, promised to reply to Obama with a letter outlining the country's national interests. Bakiyev has not made clear what national interests he is currently pursuing, or if any formal response has been submitted. But many in Bishkek have speculated that Bakiyev will not be able to resist Obama's offer for further collaboration
Second, during his visit to Bishkek earlier this month, Afghan President Hamid Karzai asked Bakiyev to retain the Manas base for the purpose of combating terrorism in Afghanistan. Karzai's message was strong, as he also voiced the opinion of the international anti-terrorist coalition.
On June 16, Bakiyev and Karzai met again at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization's (SCO) summit in Yekaterinburg. The precise details of their meeting are currently unavailable, but according to the Kyrgyz press, Karzai asked his Kyrgyz counterpart to maintain the base for cargo transit (www. 24.kg, June 17). In return, Bakiyev acknowledged the importance of the Manas base in promoting regional stability, but provided no further details.
Only a few days before announcing that the U.S. military is gradually moving out of Manas, both Kyrgyz officials and Colonel Bence discussed the possibility of keeping the U.S. base operational. It was evident that news about the final order from Washington to leave Manas came as a surprise to Kyrgyz observers. On June 11, Aleksandr Knyazev, a fierce opponent of the U.S. presence in Kyrgyzstan, expressed his confidence that the U.S. government might be willing to pay $350 million in annual rental charges to Kyrgyzstan to preserve the base (www.24.kg, June 11).
Since Bakiyev announced his decision to expel the U.S. base in February, both the Kyrgyz and U.S. governments have denied that any negotiations were taking place between the two sides. According to Jamestown sources, however, the Kyrgyz government had expected Washington to compete with the Russian promise of $2 billion in loans. The U.S. government, in the meantime, has promised $30 million in aid. The financial assistance, according to some U.S. officials, was made available in return for Kyrgyzstan's consent to retain the base (EDM, May 14). Throughout this period of uncertainty, the Russian leadership has refrained from making any official statements on the issue.
In the meantime, the Kyrgyz government is advancing closer cooperation with the Kremlin. Russian natural gas monopolist Gazprom has emerged as a likely buyer of Kyrgyzgas, the state-owned venture trading gas in Kyrgyzstan. Furthermore, the construction of the Kambarata-1 hydropower station is funded by the Russian loan. The loans and trade agreements, such as those with Gazprom and Kambarata-1 are personally controlled by the present regime in Kyrgyzstan.
In this ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Manas base, Bakiyev has shown himself to be an unpredictable and yet shrewd politician. His domestic and international policies were guided by the overarching interest of preserving his power. Bakiyev scheduled the snap presidential elections for July 23, before the final eviction date for the U.S. airbase. By juggling promises to shut the U.S. base and mooting the idea of opening negotiations with Washington, while receiving support from both, Bakiyev hoped to secure his re-election next month. Whether the U.S. base will remain in Kyrgyzstan after the August 18 deadline will become clearer after the Obama-Medvedev meeting in Moscow and the presidential election in Kyrgyzstan. As one NGO activist from Bishkek commented to Jamestown, should the U.S. base ever leave Kyrgyzstan, the Bakiyev regime will find itself forgotten by both Russia and the United States.
Another sign of weakness and the intended results of destruction from within our own country which will result in disaster. Hussein 0bama is an evil man and those who don’t get it now will get it sooner than later.
So $30 million a month...as the deal for “renting” the base? If I were Turkey, Italy, or the UK...I’d turn around and make the same offer to the Americans. This is pretty much a joke. You can guess who ends up with the $30 million and how corruption will occur. Within one year...it’ll edge up to $35 million a month.
Don't think so. That hydroelectric dam they are building with Russian financing is Moscow's trump card against Uzbekistan. The Uzbeks are livid about that dam since it will restrict the water they use to grow cotton.
That’s about it. We’re screwed.
My response would have been to call their bluff and leave immediately, not wait for their ‘deadline’. Let them suffer the consequences of their decision. One of two things would happen. Either they would soon recognize the problems of doing without the US and its money and influence, or all would be well and we could move on to finding another base in the region.
Where? If we lose Manas, supporting and resupplying our troops in Afghanistan will be immeasurably more difficult.
“Where? If we lose Manas, supporting and resupplying our troops in Afghanistan will be immeasurably more difficult.”
IIRC, the Russians gave zer0 a conditional offer to use part of their territory to deliver goods into Afghanistan. The “small” price to pay is the removal of missile defense from eastern Europe. Of course, we all know how the Russians are when they box people in who depend on them for something (e.g. natural gas to Europe). I hadn’t heard whether zer0 had taken them up on their offer.
All I see is Bambi setting us up to have Iraq blow up again and the ‘stans to become a hugh quagmire.
Then we need to suck it up and find the best way to do that. As long as these countries know they can knock us around and in essence blackmail us they will do so.
Necessity if the mother of invention, and it just could be that we would find a better way to handle the resupply needs and put us in a stronger position to deal with countries all over the world.
I know it’s tough, but sometimes you have to put your mind to something and make it work. If these countries know you will make do without them, even if it means spending more money, they are a lot more likely to deal with us fair and square.
With few exceptions America has become a country led by people who want the quick and easy fix. We are rapidly losing our drive to solve the difficult problem. Liberals are especially bad about this. Look at their declaration of the war in Iraq being lost even while we were winning it.
If they are intent on kicking us out then the sooner we set about finding an acceptable way to do without them the better. OTOH, if they are bluffing in hopes of getting more out of us it will give us a better bargaining position.
Just ideas. I certainly defer to the guys and gals who have to walk the walk! God bless them. They’re the best and that’s the very reason I want them led by political grunts who aren’t afraid to take on a challenge.
My father drove trucks from Metz to Germany nonstop for weeks. He joked that we even removed the curbs from the streets and drove them to neighboring countries.
After he was finished with his work, we drove to Italy for a ferry to Izmir Turkey for our next TDY.
If the joker wants us out of Kyrgyzstan, and is blackmailing us to line his own pockets, then when we leave we remove all of the improvements that we made, or break them up to let the Kyrgyzstani’s recycle the rebar in the concrete.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.