Iran Does Have Some Fishy Numbers

FiveThirtyEight ^ | 6/15/09 | Renard Sexton

[NormsRevenge]

A most strange storyline has emerged with regard to the provincial vote totals for the Iranian election. Around 1600 GMT Sunday, the ministry of Interior released the official vote totals by province. As others have mentioned, by law candidates have three days following voting to contest the result, before the final totals are approved by the Supreme Leader. As such, it is notable that both the aggregate totals and provincial totals were certified, approved and released before the three day deadline.

Another curious turn of events was that somewhere between 1600 and 2000 GMT, the provincial vote totals mysteriously disappeared from the English language (and all other languages other than Persian) versions of www.presstv.ir and other Iranian news outlets, where the interior ministry had distributed the results. As such, we are in debt to Daniel Berman and his colleagues for their translation of the official provincial numbers.

Although widespread allegations of fraud, manipulation, intimidation and other all too common elections tactics have been be common, statistically detecting fraud or manipulation is a challenge. For example, while mathematicians have been evaluating vote returns for irregularities in normal situational random number distribution , determining what the "correct" results should be is very difficult.

However, given the absolutely bizarre figures that have been given for several provinces, given qualitative knowledge - for example, that Mahdi Karroubi earned almost negligible vote totals in his native Lorestan and neighboring Khuzestan, which he won in 2005 with 55.5% and 36.7% respectively - there is room for a much closer look.

[NormsRevenge]

more fuel for the fire.

lots of stats and data at the link.

[NormsRevenge]

one for the road Ping

[Berlin_Freeper]

[kittycatonline.com]

Let me guess... "Donald Duck" voted 426 times? "Arnold Schwarzeneger" registered to vote 3,391 times? Some precinct in Tehran with 90,000 voters ended up casting 120,000 votes?

You know what? I bet Achmedinijad (whatever!) can at least produce his birth certificate.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Thanks turning in for the night...put it on the Iraqviolence2009 list.

Trimming way back on the heavy pinging....the volume is getting huge.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

LOL!

[SolidWood]

Iranviolence 2009. Got it.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Some good graphs....will spend some time tomorrow looking ...

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Got some photos on this thread ,...showing the magnitude of the crowds...they are huge:

Iran: There Will Be Blood

Here are some:

*******************************

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Iraqviolence2009

********** AWK....

Should be IRANviolence2009....

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Just saw this on Google:

7 killed in attack in Tehran; Moussavi vows to 'pay any cost'

# Story Highlights

# NEW: Seven killed after they reportedly attacked a military post in central Tehran

[douginthearmy]

Maybe we need to get some mathematicians working on the probability that the sun will rise tomorrow! Sheesh! How can these people honestly try to write this crap as theough there is any question whatsoever that the elections were a fraud from the getgo. Are there really that many complete morons as to not understand dictatorships?

My only very pleasant surprise in the whole situation is that the CIA backed dissidents have snowballed to such a degree. We are seeing a direct result of GW Bush's foreign policy. The fact that Bush has gotten zero credit and the fact that Obama has not been ostracized for his complete failure to back freedom is not surprising at all.

[G8 Diplomat]

Karroubi earned almost negligible vote totals in his native Lorestan and neighboring Khuzestan, which he won in 2005 with 55.5% and 36.7%

Is he a Lur? (Lur are an Iranian people related to Persians but not actually Persians). Khuzestan also has a Lur population, but is home to the Arab minority in Iran. That's where Iran's "secret" reactor at Al-Zarqan is supposed to be. Musavi is an Azeri, as I found out yesterday. Funny, none of these guys seem to actually be Persian (except for Nutjob).

[G8 Diplomat]

I’ve seen 2 reports, both from the Interior Ministry:

49 million eligible voters
42 million actual voters
19 million for Musavi
13 million for Karubi
6 million for Ahmadinejad
3.5 million for Rezai

And:
Musavi 57.2%
Ahmadinejad 28%
Rezai 2.7 million votes, or 7.2%
Karubi 2.2 million votes, or 6%
1.6% of the 37.4 million votes no preference