Posted on 06/15/2009 9:19:17 AM PDT by rabscuttle385
The conference on the future of U.S. politics, convened at the American Enterprise Institute on Friday, has come and gone, leaving in its wake more bad news for the Republican Party.
I know. You're asking: "So what else is new?" The GOP has been taking a beating in the public opinion polls of late. What makes this particular set of portends scary for Republicans is that the conferees were not studying mere polling snapshots. They were dealing with demography—long-term trends regarding various voting groups identified by age, race and geographic location. And in politics, demography is destiny.
I'm going to highlight some of the findings as the week progresses. I'll begin today with race.
Here's the bottom line: As the white vote continues to shrink in America, the Democrats are doing a much better job attracting voters of African, Latino and Asian ancestry. Especially in key Electoral College states.
(Excerpt) Read more at usnews.com ...
My understanding is that Hispanic Protestants, very small in number, also are tempted to remain Democrat because most are former Catholics. The Democrat label makes them think they are helping the “little guy” like themselves, whereas the Republicans stand for “the rich”. I know it’s foolish, but that’s how many “feel”.
You have a real point, and the last to figure this out will be the loyal Republican general election voters in TX. They do not know the disaster awaiting them.
I guess GWB was the John the Baptist for Obama, but Jesus liked John the Baptist.
No, change will come when you are fully unprepared, as when ME finally rejected that windbag Margaret Chase Smith.
Don’t you see: that office could well be John Sharp in 2010 for the KBH seat.
What you don’t understand though is that they vote Democrat if they vote because they think Democrats “care about” the “little guy”.
Haven’t you heard? AL is poised to elect Arthur Davis, an Obama clone, governor in 2010. Don’t count on AL though the people there are nice.
A search of history will reveal so many times how Everett McKinley Dirksen, first father-in-law of Howard Baker, worked in tangent with the Democrat, Lyndon B. Johnson. LBJ laughed at Dirksen behind his back, but LBJ prevailed by getting Dirksen on board for the big issues using flattery.
I don’t know what Perry meant by that statement, but neither you nor I believe he would in no way act to secede. It’s just theoretical talk, I would imagine.
I should remind you that Texas also voted for Queen Anne and Lloyd Bensen. Texas is very unique and it isn’t demographics that you imply, that gets our vote.. Understand Texas and understand our vote, even if it is wrong.
This is crapola, and I’ll give an example why:
In 2006, our Congressman, Dr. Michael Burgess, won with 60% of the vote, and about 98,000 votes.
Then along comes the “Obama Landslide,” and guess what?
Michael Burgess wins with 60% of the vote, only *this* time, it’s 198,000 votes.
Yup, that “youth/Hispanic vote” thing will do it every time!
You have me confused, Protestants make up about 32% of the Hispanic vote and they barely vote democrat, in fact voting 56% for Bush in 2004 so I don't understand your understanding, it sounds to me as though they are very open to republicans.
Fat chance...unless the rinos take over the Republican Party. Lots of libertarians and constitutionalists here and they don’t hate Christians as most are Christians.
It is also a mistake to assume Texans who came from Mexico are socialists...not by a long shot. There are many long established American-Americans.
Liberals don’t make much “progress” in Texas. Rino Liberals could kill the GOP in Texas, though.
If you define "danger" as about a 1 in 10 probability, then yes, there is a danger.
Look at the CNN exit polls from Texas in 2004 and 2008. The demographic shift you are talking about is not playing out in practice. The numer of conservatives and hispanics voting was the same each year. The only difference in 2008 is that less self-identified conservatives voted Republican.
Also, with regards to your other posts on religion, a majority of Catholics in the northern states vote Republican, despite heavy Democrat majorities in the Protestant communities. So I think the relevant identifying characteristic that determines Hispanic voting behavior in the southern states is more racial and economic than religious.
If that were true then Hispanic voters would not divide by religion, they would both vote the same.
Unless Protestant Hispanics have higher incomes and are better educated (I don’t know the answer). Why do 2 out of 3 Protestants vote Democrat in Massachusetts, while a majority of Catholics vote Republican, even in the most Democratic state that was the home of Kennedy. Why do the same religions vote so differently in different parts of the country if religion is the primary indicator of voting behavior?
Until you post a source for how northern Catholics and Northern Protestants vote it will be pretty hard to figure out what you are trying to say.
The Hispanic vote is very clear.
The Protestant vs. Catholic vote up there is fairly clear. Having lived up there for so many years, it is fairly evident in every day life, too.
Here is a link from 2008.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#CTP00p1
The 2004 cnn exit polls have more state results that are divided by religion. Connecticut, Massachusetts and New York have similar results to these 2008 Connecticut numbers at the link below. Vermont and some other states don't follow this trend at all. The only speculation I could make is that the states with the highest Irish and Italian Catholic populations had more conservative Catholic voting behavior. The 60-65% Democrat vote for Protestants in these states I can't explain.
I love that Connecticut link, I couldn’t find any of those state links that included religion myself.
What I see is white Catholics (that vote republican) and Protestants that must belong to the small non evangelical churches that vote democrat. Must be a lot of Lutherans, Methodists, Episcopalians and black Baptists up there and not enough born again whites and Hispanics.
I guess you know how that breaks down nationally, I didn’t see the link to the other states that gave religious breakdowns, do you have a couple of those?
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