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To: SolidWood

Well they have more of something.

I think we’ve come to romanticize each side in absolute terms. One is “good” and one is “bad”. It doesn’t really occur to us that it could simply all be over which tyrant rules and neither is particularly positive for the future.


15 posted on 06/15/2009 6:04:55 AM PDT by DB
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To: DB

In the short term you are most probably right.

There won’t be an overnight break from islamic republic to free democractic republic.

But if (big if) they succesfully throw out Ahmadinejad, they won’t (at least that’s what I hope and expect) waste that momentum. They will go after Khamenei next. That’s what many protesters are already calling for.

There will be a transition period with “reformers” from the old regime ala Musavi, Rafsanjani and Khatami. You are right that these aren’t the wonderful freedom loving persons we would prefer.

But the genie will be out of the bottle and the people will not accept another election with pre-selected candidates.

The old “reformers” will have to either make place for real leaders or change their own politics.

I know this is vague and speculative, but I want to remind that after the Shah left in early 1979 it took almost one year of transition and moderate Prime Ministers, until the Khomeinists fully took over the power.

The break won’t happen overnight, and there will be again internal powerfights, just as there were between the leftists and islamists in 1978-1980.

If the results of the events in Iran won’t satisfy the security needs of Israel or the US we will have to continue as we did before. But it still could be the moment of opportunity to erode the entire regime.


16 posted on 06/15/2009 6:14:13 AM PDT by SolidWood (Down with the islamic regime! Freedom for Iran!)
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