Posted on 06/14/2009 3:23:54 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
(To get a feel for what is going on in the streets of Tehran, watch this linked BBC video clip.)
Last night in London after appearing on Keith Olbermann's show, I got an email from a well-connected Iranian who knows many of the power figures in the Tehran political order asking to meet me. I told him that the only place possible was Paddington on the way to Heathrow -- and there we met.
He conveyed to me things that were mostly obvious -- Iran is now a tinderbox. The right is tenaciously consolidating its control over the state and refuses to yield. There is a split among the mullahs and significant dismay with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. A gaping hole has been ripped open in Iranian society, exposing the contradictions of the regime and everyone now sees that the democracy that they believed that they had in Iranian form is a "charade."
But the scariest point he made to me that I had not heard anywhere else is that this "coup by the right wing" has created pressures that cannot be solved or patted down by the normal institutional arrangements Iran has constructed. The Guardian Council and other power nodes of government can't deal with the current crisis and can't deal with the fact that a civil war has now broken out among Iran's revolutionaries.
My contact predicted serious violence at the highest levels. He said that Ahmadinejad is now genuinely scared of Iranian society and of Mousavi and Rafsanjani. The level of tension between them has gone beyond civil limits -- and my contact said that Ahmadinejad will try to have them imprisoned and killed.
Likewise, he said, Rafsanjani, Khatami, and Mousavi know this -- and thus are using all of the instruments at their control within Iran's government apparatus to fight back -- but given Khamenei's embrace of Ahmadinejad's actions in the election and victory, there is no recourse but to try and remove Khamenei. Some suggest that Rafsanjani will count votes to see if there is a way to formally dislodge Khamenei -- but this source I met said that all of these political giants have resources at their disposal to "do away with" those that get in the way.
He predicted that the so-called reformist camp -- who are not exactly humanists in the Western liberal sense -- may try and animate efforts to decapitate the regime and "do away with" Ahmadinejad and even the Supreme Leader himself.
I am not convinced that this source "knows" these things will definitely happen but am convinced of his credentials and impressed with the seriousness of the discussion we had and his own concern that there may be political killing sprees ahead.
This is not a vision he advocates -- but one he fears.
-- Steve Clemons
I find it interesting that CNN would rather talk about Sarah Palin and Letterman than to cover what might turn out to be a full blown revolution. Don't want to hurt Bozo's image I would guess.
Unstrung: RT @persiankiwi apparently there is running battles in tehran uni right now. i can hear shooting on the phone line. #Iranelection Twitter - 34 secs ago
My goodness! I thought our brilliant leader was just telling us how wonderful things were over there in Iran regarding this election, since his great speech! (sarc)
roprice: RT @persianwiki students being killed in tehran uni dorm in amirabad right now. this must stop, ahmadinejad must stop. #Iranelection Twitter - 49 secs ago
Yeah, he was, but that was when he thought the other guy was going win. He was going to claim credit for hope and change in Iran, but now he is looking pretty stupid. The MSM isn’t reporting on the riots much and I would suspect because of his asinine statement Friday about how he fixed everything in Iran!
Why would Obama support a right-wing coup? Can't believe Olberman is even interested in Iran.
I’m sure bo is “not to be disturbed” til after the nba game tonight tho. You know...priorities!
It does make sense if the mullahs are falling into factions, fighting over dwindling shares of loot from oil revenues.
“Maybe someone will actually cover the news tomorrow, eh?”
They can’t - Obummer hasn’t given them permission, or their talking points. They are incapable of independent thought or action.
petegaines: RT @persiankiwi: internet very slow. dialup only. no facebook, no bbc, cnn nothing. even arab stations blocked. #Iranelection Twitter - 2 mins ago
I kinda think he had something to do with Bozo shooting his mouth off about how he solved all the problems in Iran and had started a "robust(snicker) dialog" between the factions, trying to grab credit. I don't think the Mullahs could let that stand so at the last minute they rigged the elections. I think Mousavi was actually supposed to win until that point. Just some speculation on my part and probably means nothing.
What a nightmare for those poor people. How frustrating it must be to have their avenues of communication blocked, and be under fire from their own govt. What’s scary is that I believe that the left in our own government would love to be able to do the same to us.
How would things be different if Mousavi had won the election? I know very little about him.
bttt
We live in interesting times.
I believe the people know this, but they are so pi**ed at having the election blatantly ripped out of their hands so that even the semblance of democracy was taken away from them that they just exploded.
That happens when you have been ground under the government thumb for 30 years(since 1979, thanks to Carter)and I think it just came to a head, and POW, you have a riot and possible revolution.
Oobama will send Joe Biden and Jimmy Carter in to talk to them, nicely.
Unfortunately, that probably isn't the case in the United States...
We sure do. I calls it the best of times and the worst of times. Quoting Churchill, I think.
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