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To: rightwingcrazy
Population will also drop if there is a significant fall in prosperity. Fertility rates may rise, but fatality rates will rise much faster. Populations do not tend to rise when people are starving to death.

FIRST: Your statement does not affect the fact that these billionaires are acting rationally when attempting to reduce population growth by means of greater prosperity, etc. After all, they could hardly call for increased famine and civil unrest as a solution to alleged overpopulation.

On the whole, their logic is reasonable. (I make NO STATEMENT about my opinion on its political aspects.)

SECOND: Your statement is valid only given EXTREME (Armageddon-like) conditions - conditions not found in the bulk of the countries in which these billionaires might wish to enact their policies or launch their programs.

On the other hand, a sudden increase in prosperity will reduce mortality much faster than it changes reproductive habits.

I believe that this is pure speculation on your part. I namely don't believe that there are any historical precedents for it in recent times, in "normal" countries. On the contrary, evidence indicates that reproductive patterns and habits can change very quickly (resulting in fewer offspring) when economic conditions improve. It is impossible for me to debate your statement's validity without a more-rigorous formulation and definition of terms (like "sudden").

Regards,

114 posted on 05/24/2009 11:29:19 AM PDT by alexander_busek
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To: alexander_busek
FIRST: Your statement does not affect the fact that these billionaires are acting rationally when attempting to reduce population growth by means of greater prosperity, etc. After all, they could hardly call for increased famine and civil unrest as a solution to alleged overpopulation. On the whole, their logic is reasonable. (I make NO STATEMENT about my opinion on its political aspects.)
I think population is not a problem in itself to solve, and prosperity is best achieved by adopting those cultural habits that lead to prosperity. Teaching people to have fewer babies is bound to appear arrogant and self-serving. Throwing money at the problem is at best a short term solution with no long term impact.
SECOND: Your statement is valid only given EXTREME (Armageddon-like) conditions - conditions not found in the bulk of the countries in which these billionaires might wish to enact their policies or launch their programs.
These are real world conditions: the Third World was rife with periodic bouts of famine and high infant mortality rates only a few decades ago.
On the other hand, a sudden increase in prosperity will reduce mortality much faster than it changes reproductive habits.
I believe that this is pure speculation on your part. I namely don't believe that there are any historical precedents for it in recent times, in "normal" countries. On the contrary, evidence indicates that reproductive patterns and habits can change very quickly (resulting in fewer offspring) when economic conditions improve. It is impossible for me to debate your statement's validity without a more-rigorous formulation and definition of terms (like "sudden").
I acknowledge a bit of handwaving, but the rapid growth of the relative population of the Third World in the past 100 years should make that assertion manifest. About 97% of population growth is now from the Third World. That obviously was not always so. Infant mortality, famine, plague, etc, dropped dramatically, but birth rates did not immediately follow suit. That makes sense since the latter is based on cultural and personal choices that are not so quickly changed by technology, food, medicine or money.
129 posted on 05/24/2009 2:20:19 PM PDT by rightwingcrazy
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