Deluding ourselves into thinking that anything more than 8 or 10% of blacks will vote GOP (without us switching our positions on affirmative action) is nuts.
Same with the Hispanic vote. The Rats are going to push amnesty again in the very near future, and will secure the vast majority of the Hispanic vote for the foreseeable future.
SO our only options would be to side with the dems on immigration and affirmative action, in the hopes of maybe getting an extra 5 points among Blacks and Hispanics....
Or stick to our principles and get the white vote up to 65% or so.
So the GOP should play identity politics more than they have ever in the past and lose in a landslide in 2012 because voters prefer the real thing than Democrat Lite.
In the last 40 years, only one candidate has even approached 65% with the white demographic. That was Reagan in 1984, a year in which he also garnered just over 58% of the popular a vote, feat that has only been exceeded a handful of times in the last 100 years. Before 1964, I'm not sure if polling data even captures a black vs white voting trend.
For the GOP (or any candidate for that matter) to get 65% of the white vote, they would probably have to get close to 57%(ish) of the total vote - a feat that would seem unlikely given the divisions that have prevailed in Presidential politics the last 38 or so years. Again, Reagan was the only President to get over 53% since 1972. Remember, since Eisenhower, it's just as likely that a President will be elected with a plurality of voters instead of a simple majority.
Simply stated, a campaign strategy that bases victory on achieving 60-65% support in the white demographic is likely a flawed strategy with a limited probability of success.
Unless the GOP can get back to 40% of the Latino vote (Bush was at 43% in 2004), winning another national election seems very, very unlikely for the foreseeable future.