The writer of the article didn’t take into account a number of things as many GOP handicappers are not. First and foremost the GOP electorate of 2008 won’t be the same in 2012.
How will those who have reached age 18 between Dec ‘08 and primary time 2012 vote? How will those young ladies vote that were too young in ‘08?
How will disaffected Obama voters/Dems vote in ‘12? How about sorely disappointed Hillary voters? As the poll numbers rise among pro-lifers who will they line up behind?
Personally, Palin is the only GOPer who will motivate me to move from independent to the GOP to vote for her in my state’s primary in 2012.
You make a good point and I’ve been pointing out that it isn’t that the Democrats have gained ground in party affiliation as Republicans have increasingly shifted into the Independent column. Even the recent poll on whether the GOP is leaderless or not a huge number 37% say yes and I’m betting the majority of them are social/fiscal conservatives.