CA: Props Fail, State Taps Local Government? (Plan B .. Deja Vu all over again)

The 'Plan B' scenarios if the special election measures are defeated continue to trickle out of the administration of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. This afternoon, a new one: the governor is prepared to propose a $2 billion suspension of the 2004 constitutional initiative protecting city and county revenues.

Talk of suspending 2004's Proposition 1A comes on the heels of a meeting yesterday where Schwarzenegger aides told the firefighting community that voters rejecting the measures on the ballot in two weeks time would result in as many as 1,700 firefighting positions.

One local government official on this afternoon's call said the plan would be to borrow as much from local governments as Prop 1A allows -- 8% of property tax revenues in the 2008-09 fiscal year, estimated at $2 billion. An aide to the governor confirms the proposal was discussed.

The five-year-old constitutional amendment, championed by Schwarzenegger, requires that the money be repaid with interest within three years. It also would require a supermajority vote of the Legislature.

Word of such a plan comes almost five years to the day that Schwarzenegger struck a deal with cities and counties for help back then, in exchange for Prop 1A.

"We have to get our act together as a state," said the governor on May 12, 2004, "rather than always looking to the counties and to the cities and take money away from them."

The suspension of 2004's Prop 1A has apparently been in the works for a while. Earlier this afternoon, I asked the budget campaign team for documentation supporting their new TV ad's assertion that "24,000 firefighters and police" could get laid off if the measures fail.

The document that I received referenced the Prop 1A suspension, and was sent to me before word of the proposal was confirmed by both those on today's call and the Schwarzenegger administration.

All of this is leading to a fairly intense debate as to whether the governor and his team are fairly, or unfairly, predicting dire consequences should the ballot measures fail.

(A clarification: only Propositions 1C, 1D, and 1E include money being counted on for 2009-2010. The extra tax increases attached to Proposition 1A are still another two years away.)

Whether these private meetings with interest groups like firefighters and local officials are prudent planning... or part of a last minute effort to push unhappy voters into acceptance of the ballot propositions... is the subject of some debate.

Representatives of two separate opposition campaigns have called these news reports, coupled with the dire predictions in the TV ad mentioned above, "scare tactics."

"I think that we owe it to the people of California," he told reporters, "to tell them what the consequences are, so they know. And then they still have a choice to vote yes or no on those [measures]."

And the governor said it wasn't just public safety that would be hit hard, as you can hear for yourself below:

Aides to Schwarzenegger say critics of the measures need to be specific about where they would find the money to solve the state's budget woes.

All of this only confirms the tension that you can slowly feel start to build around the state Capitol... not just about the May 19 election, but about what happens on May 20.

"Throw all the bums out! "

Well, Calcowgirl, you and I have corresponded before, and I think you're the central valley lady who is very interested in Chuck DeVore's candidacy for Senator, right?

I think a lot of the state Repubbies are hoping that these huge budget problems will create the kind of tax revolution that California needs. OK, the last 40 years were fun and cute and we felt good about being kind to nature, but it's time to let the grownups handle matters of money. I have to hope that the GOPers are hoping that the money problems results in a huge tidal wave, in 2010, toward conservatives. DeVore is that kind of guy, although his aspirations are national office, not state, at this time.

We thought we got that kind of crusader with Arnold, but he lost his political courage, and he never had a friendly legislature.

... I think you're the central valley lady who is very interested in Chuck DeVore's candidacy for Senator, right?

Yep, I'm a DeVore fan -- from Los Angeles.

I think a lot of the state Repubbies are hoping that these huge budget problems will create the kind of tax revolution that California needs. ... I have to hope that the GOPers are hoping that the money problems results in a huge tidal wave, in 2010, toward conservatives.

While I see positive signs in the electorate, I don't see any indication of that coming out of our state GOP. With them pushing Fiorina into the Senate race (to push out DeVore), I don't think they're playing on our team.

I do hope that the latest stunts by the big-spenders in Sacramento all come crashing down on them and that there is a big voter backlash. It will require more people to educate themselves on the issues. Unfortunately, most people will only hear the soundbites and see the headlines about this all being Republicans fault because of those stubborn pubbies who won't go along, concluding that they need to change the 2/3 majority vote rules.

We thought we got that kind of crusader with Arnold, but he lost his political courage, and he never had a friendly legislature.

On that, I completely disagree. That 'action hero' image was the one built up by PR soundbites and headlines and is exactly the kind of thing that will destroy the conservative movement and Republicans if people don't wake up.

Mr. "everything has to be provided for the people" was touting socialism long ago and never going to be a crusader for fiscal responsibility. Mr. "let's spend 1/2 billion on after-school babysitting" had a long record of being a liberal. Mr. "I'm ashamed to be a Republican" was in this game to fulfill his own personal power trip, along with the Kennedy agenda. Mr. "I will fight for the environment and reduce harmful pollutants and greenhouse gasses" has turned out to be exactly the crazed radical governor that was predicted by those who looked beyond the "governator" action hero nonsense. The liberals in the legislature were perfectly friendly to the proposals he submitted for big spending, big borrowing, and environmental programs, and Arnie has scratched their back by advancing their pet causes including over a dozen laws advancing the rights of gays.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.