Here’s the situation as best I know it.
Look at the flu pandemic of 1918. 50-100 million people died, that’s more than twice the number dead from World war 1.
What happened then is a relatively small number died in spring, none for summer, then tens of millions die in fall and winter. All flus die down in summer and come back fall/winter.
A lot of people on these forums are rolling their eyes at this flu because only a few people will die this spring, and then it’s going to disappear in summer, and also the media always overhypes everything. The problem is that this fits the scenerio with the real killer viruses.
99% it’s a dud pandemic and only a few dozen/hundred die. But 1% the new strain mutates into something nasty, maybe something that causes a “Cytokine Storm” where the virus turns your own immune system against you like the 1918 virus did. Flus normally only kill very young and old, many thousand every year. But this swine flu killed some 20-40 year olds like the 1918 virus, so that’s why people are paying attention.
Again only a very small chance this turns out to be a big killer in fall winter, but still a real chance. Only a few people dying this spring is no assurance about fall/winter.
Before "this" is over, Mount Athos could be one of the safest places in the world.