“When it hit in early October” (re: 1918 flu).
Actually, the 1918 flu first showed up in the spring of 1918 as a mild flu. Most flu gets started in late fall. And, if the mortality rate of 1918 happened again someday (who knows when), it would look something like 1.8 million deaths just in America (2% mortality rate with a 30% infectious rate). But, as has been mentioned, modern medicine (if there was enough) and proper treatment (if enough hosptial beds - there aren’t) it will be less.
Still would be a LOT more than the 35,000 annual flu deaths.
Well that flu initially emerged in the spring and it isn’t October yet here. Time will tell.