This may be encouraging though:(further in the article)
“Almost all cases outside Mexico have had mild symptoms, and only a handful have required hospitalization.
Masato Tashiro, head of the influenza virus research centre at Japan’s National Institute of Infectious Disease and a member of the WHO emergency committee, told Japan’s Nikkei newspaper it appeared the H1N1 strain was far less dangerous than avian flu.
“The virus is relatively weak and about the same as regular influenza viruses passed on via human-to-human contact. I don’t believe it will become virulent,” he was quoted as saying.
“The threat to health from the avian influenza and its fatality rate is much greater than the new flu,” he said.
“I am very worried that we will use up the stockpile of anti-flu medicine and be unarmed before we need to fight against the avian influenza. The greatest threat to mankind remains the H5N1 avian influenza.”
Chan urged companies who make the drugs to ramp up production. Two antiviral drugs — Relenza, made by GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.L) and Tamiflu, made by Roche AG (ROG.VX) and Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD.O) — have been shown to work against the H1N1 strain.”
I would think that Japan has alot of experience with this stuff. I tend to trust their experts at this point.
I've been hearing that too. However, I would also point out that the symptoms of this aren't very much different from the symptoms of the normal flu yet the existence of this new strain has only been widely known for about a week now. This means that it is not at all unlikely that this thing started off relatively weak in Mexico before gaining strength and causing fatalities. Who's to say that people in Mexico weren't getting sick with this strain a month ago - before it got stronger - recovered, and assumed that they just had the ordinary flu?
Just because it's effects have been relatively mild outside of Mexico doesn't mean that it will remain that way. This thing is global now and new cases are being reported at a pretty fast rate. I don't see how the severity of a disease will remain so drastically different from one country to the next. I for one am starting to take this very seriously.
x
According to numbers posted online the US/Mexican suspected fatalities and suspected cases works out to about a 5.5% mortality rate.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_outbreak
This is well within the normal range of the typical “seasonal” flu.
“About 5-10% of hospitalizations for influenza lead to fatal outcome in adults” - http://www.globalsecurity.org/security/ops/hsc-scen-3_flu-pandemic-deaths.htm
Of course early numbers in a case like this are probably worthless given what we have seen with poor reporting during outbreaks of SARS, Marburg, ebola etc.
Just because it's mild now doesn't mean it'll stay that way. But if it stays mild all summer that will give us time to get a vaccine manufactured.