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To: Braak
Strange thread.

Half the folks are talking about influenza and half about SAT scores.

I'm doubting that this is going to be a pandemic on the scale of 1918 or even the 1968 outbreak. Yes, it's highly contagious but the virulence of this virus appears to be low. That could change in the coming weeks and months but I think the hybrid nature of the virus means that this is not going to be another 1918 or 1968.

I'm waiting to see the fatality rate outside Mexico. I have a bet with myself that it will be fairly low. Folks are becoming alarmed because of the ages of those who've died. I actually think this is reassuring. The absence of a predominantly very young/very old fatality cohort suggests to me that the virus itself is not particularly destructive but rather that in certain individuals with a particular genetic pre-disposition and of a certain age, there may be an overly strong immune reaction which precipitates tissue destruction and severe illness.

I think this outbreak will lead to many infections but that overall fatalities will be modest.

50 posted on 04/27/2009 11:57:02 AM PDT by marshmallow ("A country which kills its own children has no future" -Mother Teresa of Calcutta)
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To: marshmallow
The absence of a predominantly very young/very old fatality cohort suggests to me that the virus itself is not particularly destructive but rather that in certain individuals with a particular genetic pre-disposition and of a certain age, there may be an overly strong immune reaction which precipitates tissue destruction and severe illness.

The concern with the victims primarily being young adults is that, like the 1918 virus, this one may kill via cytokine storms. Not pretty.

53 posted on 04/27/2009 12:11:59 PM PDT by Thane_Banquo (President George W. Bush, RINO-in-Chief.)
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