Posted on 04/26/2009 7:48:39 PM PDT by Steelfish
Edited on 04/26/2009 7:56:02 PM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]
Police officers wearing a surgical mask guard the entrance to the Metropolitan Cathedral in Mexico City, on April 26, 2009.
What is the over/under on the number of days when the socialists in the executive and legislative branches of government use this as an excuse to deny large public gatherings such as the tea parties?
A death rate like that is going to be a real problem in Mexico.
For all the measures that are being taken now, I still think there’s going to be a huge epidemic because of the fact that people are most contagious with a virus before they know they’re sick.
Numbers going up.
Isn't this like the Spanish flu? Mostly the young and in the prime of their lives will die?
Swine Flu, ping!
The scary thing is that with the dispersal pattern of cases we are seeing, this is an airborne virus with a significant incubation period. If this doesn’t burn out soon and antivirals such as flumadine don’t work, it really could get bad.
If its get bad, what are the numbers?
Crap.
They’ll be STORMING the borders at this rate. Taking as many of us as they can.
The numbers and their increase are peculiar. Early stages of a flu outbreak should be at least geometric if not exponential. Either there is something not typical about the means of exposure for those who are infected, or the numbers are not being updated in a timely manner.
Yup. Literally millions could be infected, contagious, and not know. Then again, there could be another factor involved.
If the former, then the world is in for a rough ride...
Are cultural hygiene habits a factor here?
We ran the numbers last night, with assumption of 7% mortality and 30% infection rate, if I recall correctly. Worldwide would be over 80 million, based on those assumptions.
Time will tell.
I don't think there's going to be a huge epidemic. Remember bird flu? The West Nile virus? Vastly overblown by a hyperventilating media. This one will be the same, IMO.
That's a gross total increase of 35 in one day. That's just about a 51% increase in one day ~ pret'near asymptotic! We could compute the slope on that sucker without a lot of trouble but frankly I don't see any need for that.
That's a gross total increase of 35 in one day. That's just about a 51% increase in one day ~ pret'near asymptotic! We could compute the slope on that sucker without a lot of trouble but frankly I don't see any need for that.
Personal space is much smaller in the rest of the world, particularly in Latin cultures. That would imply a faster rate of infection, in cities at least. So would comparatively poor medical care and sanitation. This is moving much more slowly, so there’s a lag in reporting, or something else is at work. Exaggeration of the virulence? Wait and watch, is all I can say.
link ??
The general population of Mexico City is going to panic when the death toll gets into the thousands. They’ll flee the city and take the virus to the rest of Mexico. Then, hide and watch, wait and see what happens next.
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