Oil at $75 a barrel would delay oil going to $130 or higher. The current low price has sent rig counts and exploration down, which will lead to much higher prices in 36-48 months, the bad economy notwithstanding. We are setting the world up for an oil shortage and price spike.
Oil moving to $75 a barrel would increase gas at the pump by about 60 cents gallon. Oil at $130 would add close to $2.00 a gallon to the current price. Both prices are coming, it’s just a question of how soon.
I am afraid that you are closer to the truth than most. I expect at least a couple of more boom-bust cycles in the near future (2-5 year range).
My reasoning is that there are far too many OPEC countries that are singularly dependent upon this easy money. Given that they are also autocracies and strained budgets affect their longevity, we will see them pile on in an upward spike to 'make-up' for this recent drought. This will lead to oversupply bust and so on.
Our best moves are to individually reduce consumption. I do local errands on my bicycle, I have insulated my home and have new windows. I drive a 4-cylinder 1995 car. I am a conserving conservative who doesn't want ANYBODY getting my money without a fight.