Usually you see a 'moderate' or 'slight' risk, 'high' would be more like a certainty.
Posted on 04/26/2009 9:04:59 AM PDT by janetjanet998
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0579 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1054 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...KS...OK...NW TX
CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE
VALID 261554Z - 261700Z
SEE GRAPHIC FOR MDT-HIGH RISK LINES EXPECTED FOR 1630Z SWODY1 UPDATE.
HIGH RISK UPGRADE WILL INCLUDE SCNTRL KS AND NWRN/NCNTRL-WCNTRL OK WITH A MDT RISK SPANNING FROM NWRN TX/ERN TX PNHDL ENEWD INTO CNTRL OK AND CNTRL/ERN KS.
IMPRESSIVE INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER LATER THIS AFTN FOR A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR WAVES OF LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG TORNADOES...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
BRIEF THOUGHTS /DETAILS FORTHCOMING IN SWODY1 UPDATE/...
MORNING ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OUT OF ACCAS FIELD WILL TRANSLATE NWD INTO CNTRL/ERN KS AND NWRN OK THROUGH EARLY AFTN. PORTIONS OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BECOME SFC-BASED AS POCKETS OF HEATING LOCALLY ERODE CINH. ANOTHER WAVE OF STORMS IS LIKELY TO FORM UPSTREAM ALONG THE DRYLINE/FRONT IN ERN TX PNHDL/NWRN TX LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE...TRANSLATING ENE ACROSS THE MDT/HIGH RISK AREAS.
PLENTIFUL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE BELOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...MLCAPES 3000-4000 J/KG. BULK SHEAR OF 45-50 KTS ORIENTED NORMAL TO THE INITIATING BOUNDARIES AND PERSISTENT RICH MOISTURE INFLUX WILL FAVOR LONG-LIVED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN BACKED IN A CORRIDOR FROM NWRN TX INTO SCNTRL KS...IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM AN INTENSIFYING SFC LOW OVER OK PNHDL/SWRN KS...BOOSTING SRH AND RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES.
Note: It takes a member sign up with e-mail verification to view images on that link...but its a great site.the FR of the weather world
rare PDS tornado watch
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 190
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS
PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1110 AM UNTIL 700
PM CDT.
..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
DISCUSSION...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH A VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING ALONG AND E OF FRONTAL
ZONE THAT EXTENDS FROM NCENTRAL KS TO TX PANHANDLE. STORMS WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY THRU THE AFTERNOON AS WARM
SECTOR CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH TORNADIC SUPERCELLS BECOMING
MOST LIKELY DURING LATER PORTIONS OF WATCH PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR
LONG LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ACCOMPANIED BY VERY LARGE HAIL.
Since when are spring tornados on the plains rare?
High risks and PDS tornado watches are rare only a few times a year...
the last one was issued a few weeks ago...with 60 tornadoes reported in the TN valley area
Glad I live in Ohio.:)
Course, we get ours, too - an F2 passed about 1/2 mi. from my house last year.
Usually you see a 'moderate' or 'slight' risk, 'high' would be more like a certainty.
Tornados can be fun. Go out there and get completely drenched by those big slushy ice balls. Then hang around for a blow-dry. Your ears may be ringing for a while because of the low pressure.
moved to frontpage
It’s the “high risk” warning that is rare. It’s not uncommon to have tornadoes even when the forecast is for “slight” or “medium” risk. So the “high” designation, as well as “long-lived supercells” is alarming indeed. The folks in Norman don’t issue it often.
A tornado “outbreak”? Has the flu fiasco played on everyone’s minds? ;)
Not good though...let’s see, we’ve got swine flu ravaging the nation, the Taliban coming within 60 miles of Islamabad, and a high risk of tornadoes in the plains region...Tamiflu, Taliban, and tornadoes, oh my!
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 192
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
140 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 140 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
DISCUSSION...WITH STRONG SHEAR AND A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN
PLACE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSITY ALONG AND E OF DRY LINE
NWRN TX. SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG
TORNADOES ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BECOME AN INCREASING
THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS THE WATCH
AREA.
What’s the weather in Ohio for the next two days? My son is driving there today and should be leaving on Tuesday. Just a concerned parent. Thanks.
after a slow start things getting going
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=196155&st=420&start=420
Northwest Ohio (Toledo) Thunderstorms tonight...maybe.
Rain tomorrow...maybe. Windy, but not necessarily stormy for sure the next few days.
/mark
CC
so far this didn’t live up to its potential
This is a rather rare event, as I heard today on The Weather Channel. They had a part of the map marked in white, not just the ususal orange and red areas, but white which symbolizes even higher risk for very severe weather. I was in a tornado hit area when I was about 10. It took our whole farm, thankfully no persons were killed, only livestock. Believe me, you never forget an experience like that. We were in the old basement, and hunkered down there until it was quiet. When we looked outside all our barns were flat as pancakes. It took months to clean it up. I never ignore signs of bad weather. We get frequent tornadoes here in WI, but not nearly as many as elsewhere. Seeing that white area on the weather map today alarmed me, it was as far as I can remember the first time I saw that elevated level of risk. The meterologist remarked how rare it was to use that high amount of risk on a weather prediction map.
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