I haven’t seen anything yet that is outside the scope of the normal influenza outbreaks. We had what I would call an average year here this year, had a couple of really sick people with secondary pneumonia after a course of the flu. Probably a slightly worse than average year for pneumonia not associated with the flu, at least seems worse than last year.
All flu is fairly contagious, although the influenza vaccine from last fall will obviously not protect against this strain. But last year the flu vac missed and was only about 20% effective, and we did not see a large pandemic. I guess I haven’t seen anything that raises red flags for me yet, and I wonder what all the hysteria is about. I guess we will know either way over the next 2-4 weeks.
I don’t expect this to be a big problem in the US. The strains in the US have been much weaker than those in Mexico. The death rate in Mexico is pretty high. (I have seen ranges from 2% - 8%) With the crowded conditions and the poverty, they could have a big problem on their hands.
This strain of the flu hasn’t been seen before, so it is separate from the flu that would have been in the flu shots. Flu epidemics can take years to play out, the the virus tends to evolve quickly. It could get worse or better than it is right now. I think they are just playing this safely.