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No idea about the location(s) besides NYC and DC (”just because”). Big cities for big body counts would be the preference. But the easiest target(s) of opportunity and the mode of entry (land, air, or sea) will determine the relative value of one target over another for them. They may try to disperse the arsenal across the caliphate as the situation plays out and additional nations begin to fall down the line.

I think that this might end up like a chess game where we are several moves away from checkmate but the pieces still have to play themselves out over some period of time. Things might actually get better before they get worse.

The worse this gets the more nervous we will get. And the more nervous we get the more nervous the Pak military gets (fearing intervention). That *may* work out for us in the short-term as the more paranoid they become over protecting the arsenal from us the more secure it will be from the militants.

But they will have to step into the vacuum and take power. That will place them in an untenable position. The military is the only thing that works in that country. But it is now a failing state. They could step in and take the reins directly before, but it may be a terminal case now. As the state fractures, the national institutions will start to fracture (i.e. ethnic/regional rivalries). They will try to find a way to unite the nation as a last-ditch measure to avoid disintegration, and will therefore seek to co-opt the revolution (as the Mensheviks tried with the Bolsheviks after ousting the Czar in 1917). We saw this during Mumbai last year as the military and Taliban moved towards a truce in the face of possible war with India.

There are already plenty of sympathizing factions in the military. These factions will gain ascendancy over the more moderate factions as the situation devolves. They will seek to unite the nation in jihad by provoking war with India and/or the US either directly attacking our forces or via a sponsored attack against civilians(nuclear 9/11 or Mumbai).

We will then play into their apocalyptic, self-fulfilling prophecy by our retaliation. But we will not be able to eliminate all the weapons/materials. And the survivors will unite under Umar or Usama under the black banners in Khorasan to march on Jerusalem with the entire Islamic world (i.e. coincidentally Jerusalem has been a consistent theme in recent months)

This regional unification will erase the “artificial lines” of Sykes-Picot and “the nine decades of humiliation” and rebirth the “caliphate” under Caliph Umar/Usama/Saad/etc and his/their nuclear arsenal parceled out across the region to defend against the “Crusader” onslaught.

Not sure how long this takes to play out (months, years, decades). But the script was written long ago.

And we are playing along.

” . . . All that we have to do is to send two mujahidin to the furthest point east to raise a piece of cloth on which is written al-Qaida, in order to make the generals race there to cause America to suffer human, economic, and political losses without their achieving for it anything of note other than some benefits for their private companies. This is in addition to our having experience in using guerrilla warfare and the war of attrition to fight tyrannical superpowers, as we, alongside the mujahidin, bled Russia for 10 years, until it went bankrupt and was forced to withdraw in defeat.”

- - UBL 10/30/04