If Shrum predicts as well as he runs presidential campaigns...
But I think those who believe some great realignment took place with the 2008 election are mistaken. Obama won because he was black. The white guilt vote is what really gave him a winning margin, and some additional participation by blacks. Many whites felt it said something good about themselves and about their country if the first black president was elected.
The white guilt vote was probably good for one election, and we'll learn in next two to four years whether any significant realignment of coalitions and groups has actually taken place.
I believe Bush's unpopularity, opposition to Iraq, and Bush and Rove's trying to push amnesty time and again, wild spending, and other factors just demoralized and weakened the Republican party, and also caused the loss of some independent voters.
That, and the white guilt factor are not the ingredients of a long-term shift in political alignments.
Keep in mind that in 2008, McCain was outspent 3-1, he wasn’t even a popular candidate in his own party. Furthermore, it’s difficult for one party to hold on to the WH for three consecutive terms. Then throw in the fact that the mainstream media
Despite all of these major disadvantages - Obama only won by 6 percentage points.
I give Axelrod credit = they knew how to use the new media, they built a huge grassroots campaign and attracted a lot of new donors to the party. The GOP has the ability to do the same. The effort we saw today is a positive sign.
Now we have to find a leader we can all get excited about.
Re: Post 26. You echo my sentiments exactly. White guilt, disillusionment about Bush re the war and out of control spending and lack of excitement about McCain doomed the GOP in the last election.
Those criteria are not long lasting electoral shifts.
But the economy will improve and even if porkulus has nothing to do with it, Obama will take all the credit. It may improve enough by the 2010 election to give Dems. enough traction to stay on top. I think, in the end, it will be foreign policy screw ups that will doom Obama and Democrats. I just hope the screw ups won’t be devastating to our country.
I've wondered about how black lib voters are going to handle it in the when there isn't a black candidate for pres on the ticket. Will they respond with the same enthusiasm? Will democrats have to "create" a black primary candidate every election, just to keep that buzz going?