Bob Shrum is a professional spinmeister. Please. The generic party ballot is showing Republicans equal or better than Democrats. You better believe they are quakingin their boots. This is a set up to repeat 1994. Of course, they have to say it is not the same. I think it will be even bigger, given the public protests.
The 1994 revolution was years in the making, contributed to by decades of Democrat scandals and excesses (they're just getting started now), and the GOP just had a favorable census and redistricting. The GOP also had a leader (Gingrich) and agenda (Contract with America). The GOP has none of those things right now.
True and Truer.
This is a set up to repeat 1994. Of course, they have to say it is not the same. I think it will be even bigger, given the public protests.
What made 1994 so big was the regional angle. So many Southern districts that had been Democrat for a century went Republican in the 1980s and 1990s. It was a cumulative thing over time, but in 1994 the GOP picked up 3 seats in Georgia and 4 in North Carolina.
At the same time Republicans were stronger in what later became the blue states, states like California and Washington state (we picked up 5 seats in Washington that year, including the Speaker's). The GOP had even carried seats in Massachusetts earlier in the decade and held on to them in 1994.
Things are different now. There'll be a shift to Republicans in 2010, but it won't be as massive, because there aren't those conservative long-time Democratic seats in the South to pick up, and because Democrat advantages in the blue states will be harder to overcome.