Why is the act of piracy discussed in terms of "chance"? That has a disturbingly dismissive ring to it.
Piracy is and should be classified either an act of war or violent crime. Neither of those are "chance" events. Either merits a swift and lethal response. Instead, in keeping with the worldwide epidemic of the mental disease of liberalism, the victims of piracy are mostly denied the God-given right to defend their lives at sea.
More and more frequently, they don't stand a chance.
I say put a “loaded freighter” out there - only it would be loaded with guns and ammo. Float it back and forth on the same route that these real ships travel. If the pira, err I mean terrorists attack, the will be in for a huge surprise and demise.
On a serious note, I would have UAVs searching the area.