Posted on 04/14/2009 12:52:00 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Gulf Cooperation Council members -- Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Oman -- are getting ready for what many now assume will be retaliation from Iran following Israeli bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities later this year.
Up and down the Persian Gulf, Patriot missile batteries have been quietly deployed around key oil installations. The Patriot system is designed to detect, target and then hit incoming missiles that may be no more than 10 to 20 feet long and flying at three to five times the speed of sound. Iran has hundreds of missiles and rockets.
There is also a steady traffic in and out of Washington of high-ranking GCC military and defense officials, including army, air force and navy chiefs. Gulf rulers are fearful Israel's new government, headed by the tough, uncompromising Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, will walk away from any possibility of a Palestinian solution. Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman said as much when he made clear "we are no longer bound by the previous government's undertakings for the negotiation of a Palestinian state." The Annapolis accord of 2007 for a two-state solution? Didn't happen on our watch, said Israel's new governing team. Lieberman even wants to strip any rights from Arab Israelis who are disloyal to the Jewish state.
Undeterred, George Mitchell, the new super negotiator for a Middle East settlement, went back to the region for the third time since Barack Obama became president of the United States. He sees a glimmer of hope for a peace deal with Syria that would detach the ruling dictatorship from its close ties with Iran. But a Netanyahu government in Israel is not about to give up control of the Golan Heights it has occupied since the 1967 Six Day War.
While Iran may unclench its fist in words, as President Obama unclenched America's, no one in Israel, and very few in other countries, believe Iran's theocrats will relinquish the nuclear ambitions they have been working on secretly for the past quarter of a century. Netanyahu echoed near-unanimous Israeli feelings when he said an Iranian bomb, coupled with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's threats of destruction against the Jewish state, is an "existential crisis" that Israel cannot and will not ignore.
Israel's moderate President Shimon Peres added a stern warning. If forthcoming talks with Iran don't yield results, he admonished, "we'll strike." But, he added, this cannot be done without the United States. Israel's military intelligence chief, Amos Yadlin, told the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that the emergence of a nuclear arsenal in Iran is now "mainly dependent on a political decision."
The assumption among most GCC rulers is that Israel will launch bombers against some of Iran's 27 nuclear sites as soon as it becomes clear the mullahs won't agree to surrender their nuclear option at upcoming six-power talks. The United States and Iran will be at the same negotiating table -- along with China, Russia, Britain, France and Germany -- for the first time since the Iranian Revolution ousted the shah 30 years ago.
Iran's next presidential elections are scheduled for June 14, when Ahmadinejad may lose the presidency to a candidate judged by Western powers to be comparatively moderate. But the latest word from Iran watchers is that the supreme religious leader, Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, favors the re-election of his extremist protege. This would be another green light for the Netanyahu coalition government to order an attack.
Interestingly enough, not all the ruling Sunni families in the gulf are against an Israeli attempt to disrupt Iran's nuclear plans. Most feel threatened by nukes in the hands of a Shiite clerical regime that dreams of dominating the gulf, as the shah once did when Britain in 1968 gave up all its commitments east of Suez. In 1971, the shah seized three strategic islands near the Strait of Hormuz -- Abu Musa and Lesser and Greater Tunb -- that Britain had entrusted to the ruler of Abu Dhabi. The mullahs refused to return them -- and then militarized them with naval guns.
There is plenty of tinder up and down the gulf for a major conflagration throughout the region should Israel strike Iran. The mullahs with their revolutionary guards and far-flung intelligence services possess formidable asymmetrical retaliatory capabilities. They also have at their subversive disposal Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza coupled with a growing influence in the West Bank.
Morocco recently severed diplomatic relations with Iran after its agents were caught proselytizing against Sunni Islam and King Mohammed VI. Dubai, one of the seven emirates in the United Arab Emirates, has 400,000 Iranian residents -- including scores of undercover agents. Saudi Arabia's eastern province, where most its oil fields are located, as well as the world's largest offshore oil terminal at Ras Tanura and the kingdom's oil nerve center at Abqaiq, also has a large Shiite minority. And in the kingdom of Bahrain, headquarters for the U.S. 5th Fleet, a majority of the population is Shiite and subject to frequent agitation against the ruling Sunni family.
Qatar, which now enjoys the world's highest standard of living with a per capita income of $78,000, straddles the gulf fence with both ears to the ground, a somewhat ungainly posture but one that's deemed far more secure. The firebrand satellite television station al-Jazeera was created by Qatar's ruling al-Thani family and is headquartered in Doha, the capital. But the United States was also authorized to build a base in Qatar with one of the world's longest military runways. Qatar is forward headquarters for the Tampa-based Central Command headed by Gen. David Petraeus. For the past 15 years the charismatic Sheika Mozah bint Nasser Al Missned, the Qatari emir's wife, spearheaded an educational drive that brought several leading U.S. universities to establish branches in Qatar.
If attacked, Iran could also jeopardize an orderly U.S. military exit from neighboring Iraq in 2010. The two countries fought a war from 1980-1988 that killed about 1 million soldiers from both countries. Iran is influential in the western region of Afghanistan.
Oman, which faces Iran across the Strait of Hormuz, has always made good relations with Iran a top priority. But the prudent Omanis also have the gulf's best internal security system.
“If it’s true that Israel won’t strike without the approval of the US, then it won’t strike. BO will not approve that decision. But, I don’t believe that. Israel won’t have a choice other than to strike. It’s just a matter of time and opportunity now.”
A large scale attack would require some level of coordination with US forces in the area - even if the US sat out the hostilities.
From BO’s standpoint, and Iran’s, there will be no difference between active US consent/participation, or passive US consent/coordination. Therefore, it wouldn’t surprise me to hear that BO - in an effort to prevent an attack - would actually threaten Israel that he would warn Iran if US intel/forces detect an impending Israeli attack upon Iran - upsetting any element of necessary surprise.
[If attacked, Iran could also jeopardize an orderly U.S. military exit from neighboring Iraq in 2010. ]
Like anyone with a brain thinks we can actually ‘leave’ Iraq. Let’s see Obama try, and then watch the consequences.
Does Israel really have any other choice? Olmert was a Bill Clinton clone, but Bibi will do the right thing, I think.
"Never waste a crisis."
" "Today I settled all Family business, so don't tell me you're innocent, Carlo."
If Israel doesn't use this as an opportunity to settle all the family business, it may not come again.
If Israel removes the counter-balance to the Sunni Arab Gulf states and does not also establish itself with security within, then it still has unfinished business.
Okay, I know this is a bit off topic, but is it just me or does Obama look like a priss who has just bitten into a lemon in that picture?
the Baroness
I agree.
It is weird though.
When Israel took out Iraq’s nuke reactor, it had no U.S. Airforce to deal with.
It is weird....... that the only thing seemingly between the IAF taking out Iran’s nuke installations....is the U.S. Airforce in Iraq.
I don’t want to get into thee question of what the U.S. is (still) doing in Iraq, far from home.
But the fact remains that the world’s most powerful Airforce stands between the IAF and Iran.
Will the U.S. Airforce help Israel strike Iran? No- if so, it would have occurred already.
If nothing is done.. as Israeli politicians, fearful of the U.S., let Iran acquire a nuke... and Iran nukes Israel.. will Israel nuke New York? Washington? (by using subs). How would you feel if that happened? Would it be fair?
If the U.S. Airforce sends up jets to confront the IAF on the way in to Iran- and the IAF shoots down scores of U.S. jets.. is that fair? How would you feel?
Iran can not easily destroy the U.S. It can however easily destroy Israel. It has said it will. It should be taken at its word especially if you live in Israel.
I say Israel should stike Iran.
If the U.S. Airforce tries to stop the IAF.. then the U.S. is defending Iran in trying to take out Israel.. then in the fight between the IAF and U.S. Airforce may the best man win.
Bottom line- why is the U.S. hell-bent on protecting Iran in it’s quest for nukes? And on preventing Israel from striking Iran in the same way that Israel hit Iraq at Osirak?
I don’t know what Israel is waiting for with regards to Iran. The Mossad claimed they could have nukes by February. Well it’s April and Israel hasn’t struck yet.
Meanwhile the Gulf states are freaking out about Iranian missiles pointed at their oilfields, and the possibility of nuclear blackmail to threaten them into exporting a chunk of their oil to Iran (which is too impoverished to refine its own oil). That’s why the West has sent tons of weapons and missile systems to the Gulf states; to thwart possible incoming Iranian missiles. It’s all about oil. That’s the name of the game.
It’s Gulf War 3, courtesy of Iran
I believe that fewer than 30 Finnish Jews died in the Holocaust and about a dozen other Jews died. An equal number who were in the Finnish army died fighting the Germans when Germany troops tried to occupy Lapland when Finland made a seperate peace with the USSR or in the two wars against the USSR. The Finnish-German alliance in the continuation war against the USSR led to the interesting situation of Jewish officers ordering around Nazi soldiers. One was supposed to be decorated but to the Germans to shove it. If I remember the story correctly, a Finnish captain was awarded but refused the Iron Cross for saving a German officer behind enemy lines.
“The National Terrorist Forecast Service calls for intermittent rocket storms followed by swarms of speedboats.”
I heard that the mecca forecast calls for Partial sunni’s & scattered shiites....
What gives?
Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Oman -- are getting ready for what many now assume will be retaliation from Iran following Israeli bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities later this year. Up and down the Persian Gulf, Patriot missile batteries have been quietly deployed around key oil installations. The Patriot system is designed to detect, target and then hit incoming missiles that may be no more than 10 to 20 feet long and flying at three to five times the speed of sound. Iran has hundreds of missiles and rockets.At first I thought Israel had hit 'em and I'd not heard about it. Alas...
I don’t think Israel will hit Iran’s nuclear stuff. I think Israel will decapitate the mullahcracy. While it is always a mistake to underestimate Israel’s military, there’s probably no way for them to launch more than a single sortie against Iranian territory, and I don’t believe they’ll do a first-strike nuclear attack unless Israel’s existence is on the line. In the 1973 war, had the reserves not come up as quickly as they did and the Sinai counterattack become effective, the nukes were ready to be delivered.
It seems that GWB let prime opportunities go by. Why? Are they afraid an attack couldn't succeed? Therefore why try? Could you successfully destroy their nuke capability from the air alone or would you need boots on the ground? What do the Israelis think should happen? Are they split 50-50 on attacking Iran's nuke program? Or does attacking Iran have overwhelming popular support in Israel?
Lot's of questions and frankly regardless of those answers, how can the west sit back and do nothing? I always thought one of the major reasons for invading Iraq was to have our forces in Iran's backyard, specifically to stop their nuke program.
Can't Israel use Indian territory to launch a strike?
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