Here’s a paper examining/comparing our debt deflation and finance/banking implosion to those that happened in other countries:
http://www.aeaweb.org/annual_mtg_papers/2009/retrieve.php?pdfid=245
http://www.economics.harvard.edu/files/faculty/51_Is_The_US_Subprime_Crisis_So_Different.pdf
Summary: three to four years, 7% additional unemployment from the onset of the crisis, about a doubling in the national debt.
We’re nowhere close to ‘over’ for any definition of the word ‘over.’ Worse, the Obama administration (as well as the Fed) appear intent on a) studying all the mistakes of the Japanese in the 1990’s, and b) repeating them.
But we are scheduled for a rise in the markets Tuesday. It is pretty well coordinated if Wells Fargo tells us anything.
The Obammunist is on the tube early to connect his Cuba initiative with economic growth. This just after Goldman Sachs announces a banner quarter.
The curse of Hussein on TV and a falling market will be declared over. His praises will be sung for another week while they work behind the scenes in Congress to socialize the nation.
yitbos
Dave, something that I’ve realized some time after absorbing those papers... None of those financial crises (except the GD) were truly global in nature, meaning that while in every one of those crises a country had exports to help drive recovery, the entire world can’t net-export itself into recovery in 2009.
Another thing that has recently penetrated my skull is the Triffin Paradox, namely that in times of severe crisis like this, the policy required for domestic US recovery are diametrically opposite to the policy required to maintain a global financial system based on dollar reserves and dollar-based oil trade.
That first realization makes one pessimistic. The second makes one run to the store for the proverbial canned goods and ammunition.