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Your point is well-taken. One has to walk on eggshells when discussing the Thai royal family as Thailand has perhaps the most severe lese majeste laws in the world. Just last week Suwicha, a Thai, was sentenced to 10 years in jail for photoshopping pictures of the King and posting them on Youtube three years ago. Note that in the past, the King has pardoned those convicted of lese majeste a few months after their convictions.

My choice to be Bhumibol's successor would be his daughter Maha Chakri Sirindhorn. When natural disaster or terrorist activity has struck, she has typically traveled to the area to hand out relief supplies and to give the locals moral support. She seems to be a good-hearted person. Of course, I have no say in the selection of the next monarch.

The key to understanding what will happen in the future is knowing what happened in the past. In 2008, PAD seized and held the Government House compound for about a month. During the street demonstrations, one PAD protester died when a tear gas canister hit her and exploded. Since then, there have been calls for criminal investigations and prosecutions of the police handling of the riot back then. Although charges were filed against the protest leaders for the government compound seizure, they were immediately released and the charges were apparently dropped. Emboldened, PAD then took over the airports. One of the Thai courts recently decided that since the yellow shirts had relinquished both airport, they would not be tried for their actions since, after all, they were no longer in possession of the airports. One sometimes has to suspend reality to understand the actions of the Thai courts.

Treatment of the red shirts has been much more severe. This past Wednesday the red shirts besieged the Asean summit being held this week and entered the property where it was held. The Thai PM wisely called the summit off. There are no reports that the summit participants were harmed or threatened in any way. The police seized the leader of the siege and he is apparently still in custody. It's this disparity of treatment by the government between the red shirts and the yellow shirts that will exacerbate the situation. Thais tend to be fair-minded people with a cultural prohibition against political violence.

The latest reports indicate that riot police have engaged the red shirts with shields and that a number of red shirts were taken away on stretchers.

If there are multiple deaths among the red shirts, the situation is very likely to spiral out of control.

Here's how I think this situation will end. Thaksin Shinawatra will be returned to his elective office. If an honest election is later held, he would win it. I figure that Prem Tinsulanonda and the members of the Council of National Security that ran the junta will be retired and stripped of all power.

After the 2006 coup, the government should have shut up about Thaksin. He would have dissapeared into insignificance. Instead, they used Thaksin as the reason they were unable to run the country. The ball was in their court and they had no idea what to do with it. Instead of trying to lead, they just kept attacking and attacking. The government made Thaksin into this bizarro superman.

The Police/Army had a hands off approach after the Oct 7th violence. The Police were abandoned after the violence that occurred by everyone in a position of power. This included being condemned by the Queen by her appearing at the funeral of the girl killed when a tear gas canister exploded. If you were a member of the RTP, why would you put your life on the line when the only possible outcome is condemnation? That situation was never resolved and I am sure it is what is causing a similar lack of the use of force now.

I don't know what the end game is going to be, but as long as there is a difference in the treatment between PAD/UDD, this is going to continue. At the risk of using the old cliche, without justice, there will not be peace. Sending the military after the reds/UDD while letting the yellows/PAD have a free ride is just going to cause the situation to get worse.

If I was PM Abhisit, I would wash my hands of it. I would go on TV, resign my position and return to the private sector. Let whoever wants the job have it.

>> Thais tend to be fair-minded people with a cultural prohibition against political violence. <<

Maybe. But let's not forget the Malay word “amok” — as in “run amok.” I fear that the Thais may have just enough Malay DNA that their decades (and even centuries) of socio-political restraint could be interrupted by a brief but shockingly bloody orgy of violence.

>> My choice to be Bhumibol’s successor would be his daughter Maha Chakri Sirindhorn <<

Agreed. But by my understanding, she's said time and again that she doesn't want the job. In any case, I'm not sure if the Thai constitution would allow anybody other than the eldest male heir to take the Crown. Do you know?

>> One sometimes has to suspend reality to understand the actions of the Thai courts. <<

I'd say it's not so hard to understand the actions of the courts, if one assumes that Prem has been whispering into the judicial ears.