[TBP]

A Conservative third party would never win the presidency, and practically guarantee the Democrats wining every time by splitting the center right vote between the GOP candidate and the Third Party candidate.

Isn't that funny? That's exactly what was siad about the new Republican Party about 150 years ago.

[spikeytx86]

Conservatives only make up 1/3 of the electorate. And not every conservative will vote for this third party, some will want to stay with the GOP. Se let's assume optimistically this new conservative third party could garner 60% of the conservative vote for that candidate or about 18% of the electorate. Heck let's even assume it gets 20% by throwing in libertarians and libertarian leaning indies who might vote for this party. This means the conservative candidate will need to pick off at least an additional 13.5% of the electorate in enough states to put themselves over 270.

How many moderates and swing voters are going to vote for a doctrinaire conservative presidential candidate? Especially one that has not one but two major parties and their resources being levied against them?

It ain't impossible but this candidate would need at least $1 billion (probably a lot more would be needed) to take on both parties machines and their established campaign infrastructure and voter biases.

The best shot any conservative third party would have at truly having influence would be to focus on winning seats in the house and senate. Now after a few election cycles when the party has an established presence in congress, a more experienced campaign machine, and enough time for voters to see the party as not an overnight sensation but a real political force then it might be possible to run a Presidential Candidate. But they still would need a boat load of cash.