[St. Louis Conservative]

Hard to say. 2006 was a bad year for Republicans nationwide, but Penn is so far gone it’s tough to say.

Can hearts and minds be changed? If your answer is “yes”, then Toomey can win.

[AuH2ORepublican]

“Hard to say. 2006 was a bad year for Republicans nationwide, but Penn is so far gone it’s tough to say.”

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PA gave President Bush 46% in 2000 and 48% in 2004. McCain dropped to 44% in 2008, but the GOP presidential drop-off of 4% was a bit less than the national drop-off of 5%.

So, yes, a conservative Republican can win an open-seat Senate race in PA, especially in 2010 (when the governorship is also open and there is no presidential election). Economic and social conservative Pat Toomey can unite all wings of the GOP and attract enough socially conservative Democrats (perhaps the largest voting block in PA) to win the race.