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To: sanchmo
That being said, there's a real exit stretegy problem. More precisely, lack of a well thought out exit strategy. We do not have a case study that takes this through its entire lifecycle, that takes it successfully to the other side. Not one. None. Never.

Thank you for your post. So what is the typical (unsuccessful) outcome of this situation?

56 posted on 03/20/2009 8:20:58 PM PDT by ellery (It's a free country.)
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To: ellery
So what is the typical (unsuccessful) outcome of this situation?

There is no "typical" because this is a completely unique situation. We're not doing what Weimar Germany or Zimbabew did, so that's good. We're kind of doing what Japan did, but we're in a much different situation than they are. These are unchartered waters, the central banker's version of Columbus sailing east from Spain in 1492... nobody really knows what's on the other side.

What the Fed annouced - Quantitative Easing, even if they did not use those very words - is central-bank talk for what in previous times was called "printing money." It's called Quantitative Easing because it is increasing ("easing") the quantity of money.

We all know about Weimar Germany's experiment in the 1930s, and Zimbabwe's more recently. Those two printed physical bills in absurdly larger quantities that Fed is planning, and got a combination of depression and hyperinflation. So out situation is not an exact match to theirs for a number of reasons.

Japan tried it in the 1990s in the middle of a prolonged deflationary slump. If I remember correctly, they used the same approach the Fed is now planning, except they did it slower and in smaller quantities. The result was that they stayed in a slightly deflationary and slightly depressed slump (no growth or slightly negative growth) for over a decade afterwards - although it's impossible to say with certainty if it would have been better or worse if they didn't do it.

The one thing that is certain is that Japan started with very small levels of national debt and ended with with of the highest - 180% of their GDP. We **started** out with national debt of 60% of GDP, and it will easily grow to 125%-150% in a few years assuming our spending is not as high as theirs. Additionally, they were a net exporter before & during & after, which helped their cause - obviously the US is not. Lastly, the US dollar has a unique position, in that our robust economy has made it the world's reserve currency. That has made it a good safe haven during global troubles, but also gives US citizens a low-probability high-impact risk if that position changes.

This is one of the most daring and impactful economic experiments of all history. When we come through the other side, we will either sigh a deep sigh of relief, or we will curse the day this ever happened. Either way, decades from now, your children and grandchildren will be reading about this in economics courses.

57 posted on 03/21/2009 9:45:11 AM PDT by sanchmo
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