Not at all. Real Estate is only worth what someone will pay for it. If there's no demand for Real Estate, prices will fall even in a time of great INFLATION - Let me ask you, how much do you think a condo in Zimbabwe is worth today?
Second, stocks will absolutely fall during times of high inflation - check out the stock prices for companies between 1929 to 1939 - not pretty although inflation was substantial.
But, you're right about inflation not coming - just yet. But, I temper that with one caveat. We truly are in times like no other. Historical precedent could be worthless. Historical precedent says inflation should come later, then again, it could come much more quickly if the historical models are worthless.
Stocks were up nearly 400% during the 30s, what are you talking about?
I have a very complex view on real estate. And my fingers are tired.
Hey...you Big Monkey... Ha, I like that. If you’re a pessimist right now, you’re in good company. If you’re an optimist, you’ll probably make money. I made that up the other day, as right now 99.9% of folks are suicide basket cases that have no faith in the laws of gravity. F politics, I’m talking econ and gravity.
BM, if you believe, what nearly everyone else believes, then what chance you got of typically being right?
BTW, I was a screaming maniac about being bearish on r/e a couple years ago at the very top. I got called every name in the book. I in fact said it would be “the worst real estate market since the great depression”. I’m sure if I tried, I could find some of my old “the bridge is washed out comments” here at FR.
And that said, we might just have one big upmove in r/e over the next couple years. Trouble is, inflation later will be a major head wind on r/e. Because people don’t buy houses with cash, they buy it with monthly payments...
Ok, now I’ve talked and typed too much, brain hurts...