Looks like I will need to revise forcast for home prices, it is going down. In the fall 2008, there were concerns for commercial real estate and credit card defaults. Today American Express is reporting a rise in credit card defaults. They usually take people with high incomes and good credit card ratings because they do not allow customers to keep a running balance like VISA and Mastercard. If they are having problems, I do not want to see what is happening with VISA and Mastercard/etc. The other rumbling is commercial real estate. Most of the developers have five year balloons coming due this summer 2009. Some of the major players already are behind their payments. If the US banks are not in position to help them refinance despite the growing vacancy rates in the refi properties, we may face another crisis similar to the subprime crisis as the losses will hit the barely solvent banks. Feds will have their hands full trying to find additional funding to replace these new losses from commercial mortgages and credit card losses hitting our banks again. I think recovery is too premature and a clearer picture will form by June of this year. As it stands now I think the trends is toward a 5 to 10 year recession.
I could keep a balance on my Amex, if I wanted to.