His scenario is plausible, except for the six. An unconstitutional putsch by Obama could split the country, but I suspect three pieces, which would quickly be reduced to two: Alaska; a rump Federal block loyal to Obama consisting of the Northeast (including Ohio), West Coast, Virginia, Illinois, Wisconsin and Minnesota; and the rest of the lower 48.
I’m guessing Alaska would rejoin the New Union in the lower 48 fairly soon. Maybe Hawaii would go independent, maybe it would stay with Obama, and maybe some heavily Mexican border counties would try to join Mexico (though not if they knew what was good for them).
I’m guessing the inland rural parts of the West Coast states, and downstate Illinois and parts of Ohio and Virginia would secede from their states and join the New Union. The New Union would have all the farms, most of the military bases and most of the natural resources. Obama’s rump state would be left with most of the population, and no way to support them. There would be some nasty fighting in the pro-Obama cities of states in the New Union, and in areas where the rural population tries to secede from a pro-Obama state.
I pretty well agree with your take, especially regarding how rural areas of states like Illinois would break off to join the rest of flyover country. My own county in rural IL voted for Keyes over Obama in the 2004 Senate elections, for crying out loud. If there is a breakup Obama will get a bunch of cities full of angry stupid people, and very little else.