>> I agree with your analysis...no difference (yet?).
IMHO, the difference wouldn’t come from rust belt states most of whom have their hand out and will vote in their self interest.
The difference will come when the relatively entrepreneurial states, who voted for Bambi not for his union support but for some gauzy hopey changey reason, come to their senses.
What if Californians suddenly had enough? Now THAT would change the electoral landscape in a real hurry.
Likely? No. Possible? I think “yes”.
I guarantee Florida would go for McCain now. It’s not a heavy union state, and it depends on tourists/people to come spend $$$ in the resorts and golf communities. Florida’s housing crisis is indeed serious, and Obama’s plans to tax the “rich” is like sticking a stake in the heart of Florida. McCain would win The Sunshine State handily today.