'There will be blood'......(The global crisis has only just begun)

Globe and Mail ^ | Monday, February 23, 2009 | Heather Scoffield

[fanfan]

[SnakeDoctor]

>> Harvard economic historian Niall Ferguson predicts prolonged financial hardship, even civil war, before the ‘Great Recession’ ends.

The fact that this prediction came from a “Harvard economic historian” means it is more likely that the opposite will occur. Pointy-headed Harvardites rarely make accurate predictions.

SnakeDoc

[ClearCase_guy]

"If we simply go back to where we were, in 2005, that's surely not the worst thing that could happen to us.”

IIRC, 2005 was considered the worst economy in 50 years. [/s]

[Red in Blue PA]

“Pointy-headed Harvardites rarely make accurate predictions.”

Agree.

Anyone who has ever followed the so-called Harvard “gurus” on Wall Street can attest to that.

[alloysteel]

Think Hoover, 1930 and 1931, taking all the wrong steps.

FDR essentially adopted most of Hoovers “recovery” plan, and had he stopped there, the recovery would have proceeded on its own. But the “brain trust” all the academics and semi-retired moguls of industry, hired for a dollar a year, came up with all these new programs, and by spending $3 for maybe a dollar’s worth of value, managed to build a towering debt by 1938, with no visible improvement in the general degree of prosperity. Enterprises were going out of business every day, and the new ones born were under-capitalized and over-extended very shortly into their operation.

We are headed down that wrong road again, and America is SO screwed.

[SnakeDoctor]

>> Anyone who has ever followed the so-called Harvard “gurus” on Wall Street can attest to that.

Truly qualified “economists” make millions in business, not $60K as a tenured Harvard professor.

Those who can, do.

SnakeDoc

[penelopesire]

“And indeed if you have a more equitable redistribution through the tax system, which Obama is committed to, it might actually be no discernible downside for middle America and lower-class Americans. So many of the benefits of the boom went to the elites. If you have a lost decade plus redistribution, it may not be that dramatic a change for many, many people.”

Sounds like a typical socialist to me!

[Free Vulcan]

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[Mad_Tom_Rackham]

These academics are wrong 99.9% of the time.

[sauropod]

Haven’t read the whole thing yet, but in the start of the piece he was whining how America isn’t going to get it as bad as other countries and how unfair that was.

[Dick Holmes]

One of the facts is if you subtract mortgage equity withdrawal from the Bush years, the real underlying rate of growth of the U.S. economy was 1 per cent.

Whew! That's a relief. If you discount the housing bubble, the economy actually still grew a little bit. Of course, 1% averaged over 8 years probably means some years might have had 2%, and some had zero or negative growth.

[SnakeDoctor]

Ha! I didn’t even make it that far. I stopped after “Harvard economic historian”.

SnakeDoc

[jetson]

There is the factor of the Mexican influence( fifth column) and the over expecting blacks in the inner city that could spark inner city wars.

[pappyone]

Don't know the background of Niall Ferguson, but he does have a way of plain speaking. Still, predicting the future is dicey.
Good post.

[Dick Holmes]

Canadians are a 98 pound economy in bed with an 800 pound gorilla. When the gorilla rolls over, they always complain how life is unfair.

[Former MSM Viewer]

Long read, but in keeping with my policy of not putting my head in the sand, I read the whole thing...

This (troubled economy) isnt going away yet...

[Petronski]

Superb.

[wastoute]

I was kind of put off by that as well, but read what he says. He doesn't seem to be a Zerobot. He is saying that the political leadership is basically whistling past the graveyard on the economy hoping that it will turn around becuase they say it will. He says it won't. He says "There will be blood" before it is over. I agree.

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[green iguana]

Excellent post. Couple of minor quibbles, but big disagreement on that there won’t be a WW IV...